US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
US

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017

Question A:

US GDP is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

Corporate capital stock is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

Real median wages are substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question D:

Federal tax revenues are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question E:

Charitable donations are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity
US

Land Value Tax

Shifting the burden of municipal property taxes towards land and away from improvements such as buildings - as proposed in the Detroit land value tax plan - will enhance the incentives for owners to develop their land and thereby give a substantial boost to local economic growth over a ten-year horizon.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
US

Women and the Labor Market

This US survey examines (a) By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals; (b) Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing;  (c) The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours 
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Demographics, Aging, & Gender
US

Responses To Market Power

This US survey examines (a) Constraints on the anti-competitive behavior of dominant firms in the digital economy can in principle be effectively implemented using the existing tools of competition policy and antitrust enforcement; (b) The effectiveness of existing antitrust regimes in constraining anti-competitive behavior is substantially limited by the inadequacy of the resources available to competition and regulatory agencies relative to the dominant firms of the digital economy;  (c) Constraints on the anti-competitive behavior of dominant firms in the digital economy would be more effectively implemented than at present with ex-ante regulation such as Europe's Digital Markets Act and other forms of public utility regulation. Details on Digital Markets Act here: https://digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu/index_en 
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Regulation, Competition, & Market Power
US

Subsidizing Green Technology

This US survey examines (a) Government subsidies for investment in green technologies are justified by substantial benefits coming from reducing unpriced carbon emissions and generating positive R&D spillovers; (b) Using subsidies for green technologies instead of full carbon prices will lead to substantially more rent-seeking and hence substantially higher costs to achieve a given reduction in emissions 
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Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources
US

AI and the Labor Market

This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education; (c) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years is likely to have a measurable impact in increasing income inequality 
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Jobs, Pay, & Unemployment
US

AI and Market Power

This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence is likely to lead to a substantial increase in problems associated with market power in digital markets; (b) Artificial intelligence offers substantial opportunities for new entrants into digital markets that have previously been concentrated; (c) Artificial intelligence is likely to be a highly concentrated industry, dominated by a handful of players 
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Regulation, Competition, & Market Power
US

Policy Responses to Recent Bank Failures

This US survey examines (a) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Expand central banks’ lender of last resort facilities for banks; (b) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase the limit on bank deposit insurance; (c) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase bank capital requirements; (d) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Use market values of all traded assets to compute banks’ regulatory capital 
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
US

Debt Sustainability

This US survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability. 
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Public Debt & Deficits
US

Fiscal Rules

This US survey examines (a) Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework; (b) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules; (c) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules 
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
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Topics

BankingBondsBusiness Cycles, Recessions, & CrisesBusiness, Management, & Corporate PerformanceCorporate GovernanceDemocracy, Government, & Public PolicyDemographics, Aging, & GenderEconomic Growth, Development, & ProductivityEconomists, Economic Theory, & Economic OrganizationsEducation & SkillsEnvironment, Climate Change, & Natural ResourcesFinance and the EconomyFinancial CrisesFinancial Markets & BankingFinancial RegulationHealthcare & WellbeingInternational FinanceInternational Trade & Exchange RatesInvestment ManagementInvestment, Infrastructure, & CitiesInvestmentsJobs, Pay, & UnemploymentMigrationMonetary Policy, Interest Rates, & InflationPoverty, Inequality, & Social MobilityPublic Debt & DeficitsRegulation, Competition, & Market PowerScience, Technology, & InnovationSocial Policy & SocietyTaxes & Public SpendingTransport

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