US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Cable-Satellite TV Fees

Consumers would not necessarily be better off if cable and satellite TV firms were required to offer a la carte pricing for individual channels, because the networks' programming charges and the satellite-and-cable fees could adjust in response to this rule.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 24, 2012

Healthcare and Taxes

Long run fiscal sustainability in the U.S. will require cuts in currently promised Medicare and Medicaid benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 18, 2012

Europe

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.

B) If Germany fails to bail out the southern tier of Europe, its own economy will be hurt more — because of output and asset losses — than it would be by an unconditional bailout.

C) The main reason other eurozone countries need to worry about Greek banks losing access to ECB support is because the ensuing chaos in Greece could trigger bank runs in peripheral countries.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

July 3, 2012

Laffer Curve

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would lead to higher GDP within five years than without the tax cut.

B) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would be higher within five years than without the tax cut.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 26, 2012

China-US Trade

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Trade with China makes most Americans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.

B) Some Americans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 19, 2012

College Tuition

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

An important reason why private college and university tuition has risen faster than the CPI during the past few decades is because competition for faculty members — whose potential earnings in other sectors have steadily improved — has driven up their pay faster than their productivity.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 12, 2012

Fiscal Cliff

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

If the fiscal changes that are planned under current US law take place next year — including Bush era tax cuts expiring, Medicare payment rates to doctors being cut, the AMT applying to many more taxpayers, and automatic cuts in defense and non-defense discretionary spending kicking in — then US real GDP growth in 2013 will be lower than it would be under the CBO's alternative fiscal scenario, in which the above changes do not occur.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 5, 2012

Fracking

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 23, 2012

Cuba’s Economy

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Cuba’s low per-capita income growth — 1.2 percent per year since 1960 —has more to do with Cuba’s own economic policies than with the U.S. embargo on trade and tourism.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 15, 2012

French Labor Policies

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:

A) Reducing the minimum retirement age in France from 62 back to age 60, permanently, would reduce long-term French economic growth and substantially raise French debt relative to GDP over time.

B) France’s overall employment is higher today because of the 35 hour work week than it would be without a limit on weekly hours.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 8, 2012