US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Trade Barriers for Sugar

The current trade barriers in the U.S. sugar industry raise the profits of sugar producers and make the typical U.S. consumer pay more for sugar and goods that use sugar as an input.

Responses

13%

38%

46%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 27, 2012

Student Loans

Question A:

Loans to students attending for-profit colleges are especially risky because students attending them have had default rates that greatly exceed those for comparable students attending public and non-profit private institutions.

Responses

15%

21%

10%

38%

10%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Rules that tie each college's eligibility for federal student loans to its students' graduation rates and post-schooling employment outcomes would better protect taxpayers from losses on student loans.

Responses

15%

10%

13%

49%

10%

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 21, 2012

Money Market Funds

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A. The way in which money market funds normally trade – at one dollar per share, even though the per-share value of the assets backing them varies over time – made them vulnerable to a run in 2008 before they received taxpayer guarantees.

B. Taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were instead required to trade at its floating net asset value.

C. In the absence of floating net asset values, taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were required to set aside capital to protect against losses while holding back a portion of shareholders' cash for a time when they seek to withdraw all of their money.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 14, 2012

Obesity and Soft Drinks

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Taxes or bans on large bottles of soft drinks containing sugar are not likely to have a significant effect on obesity rates because people will substitute towards consuming excessive calories in other ways.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 7, 2012

Online Sales Taxes

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Subjecting online sales from out-of-state vendors to the same retail sales taxes imposed on in-state sales would raise more tax revenue in the states making this change while reducing the pro-online bias of current policy.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 31, 2012

Cable-Satellite TV Fees

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Consumers would not necessarily be better off if cable and satellite TV firms were required to offer a la carte pricing for individual channels, because the networks' programming charges and the satellite-and-cable fees could adjust in response to this rule.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 24, 2012

Healthcare and Taxes

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Long run fiscal sustainability in the U.S. will require cuts in currently promised Medicare and Medicaid benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 18, 2012

Europe

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.

B) If Germany fails to bail out the southern tier of Europe, its own economy will be hurt more — because of output and asset losses — than it would be by an unconditional bailout.

C) The main reason other eurozone countries need to worry about Greek banks losing access to ECB support is because the ensuing chaos in Greece could trigger bank runs in peripheral countries.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

July 3, 2012

Laffer Curve

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would lead to higher GDP within five years than without the tax cut.

B) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would be higher within five years than without the tax cut.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 26, 2012

China-US Trade

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Trade with China makes most Americans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.

B) Some Americans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 19, 2012