US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Bitcoin

A bitcoin's value derives solely from the belief that others will want to use it for trade, which implies that its purchasing power is likely to fluctuate over time to a degree that will limit its usefulness.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

April 22, 2013

High-Debt Countries

Countries that let their debt loads get high risk losing control of their own fiscal sustainability, through an adverse feedback loop in which doubts by lenders lead to higher government bond rates, which in turn make debt problems more severe.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 9, 2013

Trade Deals

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Refusing to liberalize trade unless partner countries adopt new labor or environmental rules is a bad policy, because even if the new standards would reduce distortions on some dimensions, such a policy involves threatening to maintain large distortions in the form of restricted trade.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 27, 2013

Early Education

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Using government funds to guarantee preschool education for four-year olds would yield a much lower social return than the ones achieved by the most highly touted targeted preschool initiatives.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 12, 2013

Minimum Wage

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for low-skilled workers to find employment.

B: The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to low-skilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 26, 2013

High-Skilled Immigrants

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of highly educated foreign workers were legally allowed to immigrate to the US each year.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 12, 2013

Japan’s Deflation

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The persistent deflation in Japan since 1997 could have been avoided had the Bank of Japan followed different monetary policies.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

January 29, 2013

Debt Ceiling

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Because all federal spending and taxes must be approved by both houses of Congress and the executive branch, a separate debt ceiling that has to be increased periodically creates unneeded uncertainty and can potentially lead to worse fiscal outcomes.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 15, 2013

Small Firms

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The federal government would make the average U.S. citizen better off by using policies that directly focus more on increasing small business growth than growth of economic output overall.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

January 8, 2013

Indexing

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The annual indexing of Social Security benefits to increases in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (the CPI-W) leads to higher benefits than would be required to compensate recipients for genuine cost-of-living increases.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 18, 2012