US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Scottish Independence

Although there are many issues for Scotland’s voters to consider, one consequence of separating from the rest of the UK would be greater macroeconomic instability for Scotland for many years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

September 15, 2014

Infrastructure (revisited)

Question A:

Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

September 9, 2014

U.S. State Budgets (revisited)

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 26, 2014

Fracking (revisited)

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

August 12, 2014

Economic Stimulus (revisited)

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on February 15, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)

B: Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 29, 2014

Congress and Monetary Policy

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Legislation introduced in Congress would require the Federal Reserve to "submit to the appropriate congressional committees…a Directive Policy Rule", which shall "describe the strategy or rule of the Federal Open Market Committee for the systematic quantitative adjustment of the Policy Instrument Target to respond to a change in the Intermediate Policy Inputs." Should the Fed deviate from the rule, the Fed Chair would have to "testify before the appropriate congressional committees as to why the [rule]…is not in compliance." Enacting this provision would improve monetary policy outcomes in the U.S.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 14, 2014

Patents

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: All else equal, Patent Assertion Entities — which specialize in acquiring and asserting patents and are popularly known as “patent trolls" — promote innovation in the U.S.

B: Within the software industry, the US patent system makes consumers better off than they would be in the absence of patents.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

June 24, 2014

Liquidity

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

There is a social value to having institutions that issue liquid liabilities that are backed by illiquid assets.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 3, 2014

Gary Becker

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A: Employers that discriminate in hiring will be at a competitive disadvantage, if their customers do not care about their mix of employees, compared with firms that do not discriminate.

B: Rising market wages are an important reason — over and above any changes in medical technology, social norms or preferences — why family sizes have fallen over the past century in rich countries.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 20, 2014

Net Neutrality II

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Considering both distributional effects and changes in efficiency, it is a good idea to let companies that send video or other content to consumers pay more to Internet service providers for the right to send that traffic using faster or higher quality service.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 6, 2014