US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

$15 Minimum Wage

Question A:

If the federal minimum wage is raised gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020, the employment rate for low-wage US workers will be substantially lower than it would be under the status quo.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020 would substantially increase aggregate output in the US economy.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

September 22, 2015

Greece’s Referendum

The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

July 4, 2015

Currency Manipulation

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Economic analysis can identify whether countries are using their exchange rates to benefit their own people at the expense of their trading partners’ welfare.

B) Bank of Japan monetary policies that result in a weaker yen make Americans generally worse off.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 16, 2015

Nash Equilibrium

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 2, 2015

US Median Income

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The 9% cumulative increase in real US median household income since 1980 substantially understates how much better off people in the median American household are now economically, compared with 35 years ago.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 12, 2015

California’s Drought

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

April 21, 2015

Raising Interest Rates

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 7, 2015

Local Tax Incentives

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a city or state typically generates local benefits that outweigh the costs to the city and/or state providing the incentives.

B) The US as a whole benefits when cities or states compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 24, 2015

Vaccines

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

A) Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.

B) Considering the costs of restricting free choice, and the share of people in the US who choose not to vaccinate their children for measles, the social benefit of mandating measles vaccines for all Americans (except those with compelling medical reasons) would exceed the social cost.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 10, 2015

Greece

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

In 10 years, per capita purchasing power in Greece will be higher if — rather than continuing to service its debts over the next decade and complying with the budget rules currently in place — it refuses to accept a continuation of its current troika program and explicitly defaults on its debt held by the official sector.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

February 24, 2015