US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Tariffs

Question A:

Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

International Trade & Exchange Rates

April 30, 2024

Test Scores and College Admissions

Universities that abandon temporary pandemic test-optional policies and return to requiring standardized test scores for admissions will create measurably enhanced opportunities for potentially high-achieving students from low-income backgrounds.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Education & Skills

April 16, 2024

Supermarket Merger

This US survey examines: The FTC is opposed to Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons. Critics argue that with sufficient divestitures, the deal would be consistent with past FTC policies; (a) Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would lead to substantially higher grocery prices and/or lower product quality/services for their customers (b) Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would have a substantially negative effect on the two companies’ workers; (c) The public interest would be better served if antitrust policy were changed so that when a proposed merger means a market will reach a certain level of concentration, the onus is on the merging parties to show that consumers and workers will not be harmed.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

March 27, 2024

Prescription Drugs

This US survey examines (a) Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US retirees; (b) Allowing imports of medicines from Canada will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US consumers without compromising safety

Healthcare & Wellbeing

March 13, 2024

Congestion Pricing in New York

This US survey examines: A tolling program for New York City is out for public consultation with proposed charges on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan summarized here: https://new.mta.info/document/129191 (a) The proposed tolls on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial reduction in traffic congestion in the targeted area; (b) The proposed tolls on vehicles entering Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial increase in traffic congestion just outside the central business district, above 60th Street, in the outer boroughs and New Jersey

Investment, Infrastructure, & Cities

February 27, 2024

Economic Sanctions and Aid

This US survey examines (a) The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine; (b) In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

February 7, 2024

US Steel

This US survey examines (a) Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would lead to substantially less employment in the US steel industry than in the absence of such a deal; (b) Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would cause no measurable damage to the American economy

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

January 17, 2024

Argentina

This US survey examines a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP

Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, & Inflation

December 6, 2023

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017

This US survey examines (a) US GDP is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (b) Corporate capital stock is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (c) Real median wages are substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (d) Federal tax revenues are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (e) Charitable donations are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

November 20, 2023

Land Value Tax

Shifting the burden of municipal property taxes towards land and away from improvements such as buildings - as proposed in the Detroit land value tax plan - will enhance the incentives for owners to develop their land and thereby give a substantial boost to local economic growth over a ten-year horizon.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 2, 2023