US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Primary Voting

Question A:

There is no perfect voting system. That is, no voting system can ensure that the winner will be the person who best represents voters’ wishes, including how intensely they favor or disfavor each candidate.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

One clear defect of a winner-take-all election with 3 or more candidates, and with each voter choosing only one candidate, is that a candidate who is strongly disliked by a majority, but strongly liked by a minority, can beat a candidate who is liked by a majority and disliked by relatively few.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 7, 2016

Oil Price Speculation

Large movements in monthly oil prices, either up or down, are driven primarily by speculators, as opposed to changes in the current (and planned) supply or demand for oil.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 16, 2016

Brexit

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) If the UK opts to withdraw from the European Union, and assuming Scotland stays in the UK, the level of the UK's real per-capita income a decade later will be lower than if it remains part of the EU.

B) If the UK exits the EU, then it substantially increases the chances that some other current region of the EU will also exit within the following decade.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 2, 2016

China’s Growth

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

China’s growth model, specifically the unusually high investment rate and low consumption rate, is unsustainable.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

January 19, 2016

Christmas Spending

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

An annual December spending surge on parties, gift-giving and personal travel delivers net social benefits.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 22, 2015

US Interest Rates

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The Fed should raise its target interest rate when it meets in mid-December.

B) The Fed should have raised interest rates sooner, rather than leaving them near zero for this long.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

December 8, 2015

Quarterly Earnings

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.

B) A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

November 20, 2015

Standardized Tests

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Comparing their students’ average gains on standardized tests over the school year makes it easier to predict which teachers — all else equal — are more likely to improve their student’s long-term life outcomes.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 3, 2015

Poverty and Measurement

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The association between health and economic growth in poor countries primarily involves faster growth generating better health, rather than the other way around.

B) The decline in the fraction of people with incomes under, say, $1 per day is a good measure of whether well-being is improving amount low-income populations.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 20, 2015

Health Insurance Subsidies

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.

B) Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will generate gains in the health and well-being of the newly insured that exceed the costs.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 5, 2015