US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Brexit

Question A:

If the UK opts to withdraw from the European Union, and assuming Scotland stays in the UK, the level of the UK's real per-capita income a decade later will be lower than if it remains part of the EU.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

If the UK exits the EU, then it substantially increases the chances that some other current region of the EU will also exit within the following decade.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 2, 2016

China’s Growth

China’s growth model, specifically the unusually high investment rate and low consumption rate, is unsustainable.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

January 19, 2016

Christmas Spending

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

An annual December spending surge on parties, gift-giving and personal travel delivers net social benefits.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 22, 2015

US Interest Rates

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The Fed should raise its target interest rate when it meets in mid-December.

B) The Fed should have raised interest rates sooner, rather than leaving them near zero for this long.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

December 8, 2015

Quarterly Earnings

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.

B) A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

November 20, 2015

Standardized Tests

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Comparing their students’ average gains on standardized tests over the school year makes it easier to predict which teachers — all else equal — are more likely to improve their student’s long-term life outcomes.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 3, 2015

Poverty and Measurement

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The association between health and economic growth in poor countries primarily involves faster growth generating better health, rather than the other way around.

B) The decline in the fraction of people with incomes under, say, $1 per day is a good measure of whether well-being is improving amount low-income populations.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 20, 2015

Health Insurance Subsidies

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.

B) Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will generate gains in the health and well-being of the newly insured that exceed the costs.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 5, 2015

$15 Minimum Wage

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) If the federal minimum wage is raised gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020, the employment rate for low-wage US workers will be substantially lower than it would be under the status quo.

B) Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020 would substantially increase aggregate output in the US economy.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

September 22, 2015

Greece’s Referendum

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

July 4, 2015