US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Baumol’s Cost Disease

Because labor markets across different sectors are connected, rising productivity in manufacturing leads the cost of labor-intensive services — such as education and health care — to rise.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 16, 2017

Tax Reforms

Question A:

Since 1980, whenever substantial growth effects have been required to make a tax reform plan revenue neutral, the actual outcome has invariably been a fall in tax revenue as a share of GDP.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

The tax reform plan proposed by President Trump this week would likely pay for itself through higher economic growth.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 2, 2017

Border Adjustment Tax

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Implementing a "destination based cash flow tax (including border adjustment)" of the type advocated by Speaker Ryan would substantially reduce the US trade deficit within the next few years.

B) Implementing a "destination based cash flow tax (including border adjustment)" of the type advocated by Speaker Ryan would substantially raise prices for US consumers.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 12, 2017

The CBO

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Forecasting the effects of complex legislative actions is hard, so even competent, non-ideological and non-partisan projections could differ substantially from outcomes.

B) Adjusting for legal restrictions on what the CBO can assume about future legislation and events, the CBO has historically issued credible forecasts of the effects of both Democratic and Republican legislative proposals.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 21, 2017

High-Skilled Immigrant Visas

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, expected US tax revenues will rise materially over the next four years.

B) If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, employment for American workers will rise materially over the next four years.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 14, 2017

Sports Stadiums

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Providing state and local subsidies to build stadiums for professional sports teams is likely to cost the relevant taxpayers more than any local economic benefits that are generated.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 31, 2017

Trump and Share Prices

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US after-tax corporate profits.

B) US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US real GDP growth.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 17, 2017

Economic Policy Advice

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The Council of Economic Advisors is likely to give the US president better policy advice if the Chair and Members of the CEA have published peer-reviewed economics research.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 21, 2016

100-Day Plan

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan (see link) are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of middle-class Americans over the next decade.

B) If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of low-skilled Americans over the next decade.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 16, 2016

AT&T and Time Warner

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

A merger of AT&T and Time Warner would likely increase consumer surplus over the ensuing decade.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

November 8, 2016