US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Balanced Budget Amendment

Question A:

Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 7, 2017

Behavioral Economics

Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 19, 2017

Factors Contributing to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis

Please rate the importance (0=none; 5= highest) of each item below (presented to panelists in randomized order) in contributing to the 2008 global financial crisis. © 2017. Initiative on Global Markets. Source: IGM Economic Experts Panels www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel © 2017. Initiative on Global Markets. Source: IGM Economic Experts Panels www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel The following items were presented to […]

October 17, 2017

Refugees in Germany

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:

The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 12, 2017

Robots and Artificial Intelligence

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.

B) Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

September 12, 2017

Inflation Target

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) If the Fed changed its inflation target from 2% to 4%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged.

B) Raising the inflation target to 4% would make it possible for the Fed to lower rates by a greater amount in a future recession.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

July 11, 2017

Deficits

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

If the US reduced its fiscal deficit, then its trade deficit would also shrink.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 21, 2017

Infrastructure Spending

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:

A) The US should increase spending now on roads, railways, bridges and airports (including new projects, maintenance or both).

B) The advisability of increasing federal spending on roads, railways, bridges and airports is independent of whether the US also enacts tax cuts that substantially lower revenues.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 6, 2017

Baumol’s Cost Disease

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Because labor markets across different sectors are connected, rising productivity in manufacturing leads the cost of labor-intensive services — such as education and health care — to rise.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 16, 2017

Tax Reforms

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Since 1980, whenever substantial growth effects have been required to make a tax reform plan revenue neutral, the actual outcome has invariably been a fall in tax revenue as a share of GDP.

B) The tax reform plan proposed by President Trump this week would likely pay for itself through higher economic growth.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 2, 2017