US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
US

Testing for Coronavirus Infections and Antibodies

Question A:

Even if tests for Covid-19 are being rationed, there is an urgent need for some random testing to establish baseline levels of the virus to inform any decisions about ending lockdowns.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

Required elements for an economic ‘restart’ after lockdowns include a massive increase in testing capacity (for infections and antibodies) along with a coherent strategy for preventing new outbreaks and reintroducing low-risk/no-risk individuals into public activities.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
US

Policy for the COVID-19 Crisis

Question A:

A comprehensive policy response to the coronavirus will involve tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity until the spread of infections has dropped significantly.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

Optimally, the government would invest more than it is currently doing in expanding treatment capacity through steps such as building temporary hospitals, accelerating testing, making more masks and ventilators, and providing financial incentives for the production of a successful vaccine.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
US

Coronavirus

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.

B) The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions. 
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
US

Mandatory Medicare II

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to lower aggregate medical debt among patients.

B) Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to lower aggregate innovation in the pharmaceutical industry.

C) Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would improve health outcomes for the majority of the population. 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
US

Mandatory Medicare I

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

a) Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to improved access to healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.

b) Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to longer waiting times for healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population. 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
US

Brexit, the UK Economy and US-UK Trade

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.

B) The near certainty that the UK will leave the European Union's customs union and single market in 2020 offers a sizeable export market opportunity for American business. 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
US

Central Banking and Climate Change

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.

B) The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade. 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
US

Experimental Research, Development Economics and Poverty Reduction

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for answering some long unsettled questions in development economics research.

B) Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for making significant progress in poverty reduction. 
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Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
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Topics

BankingBondsBusiness Cycles, Recessions, & CrisesBusiness, Management, & Corporate PerformanceCorporate GovernanceDemocracy, Government, & Public PolicyDemographics, Aging, & GenderEconomic Growth, Development, & ProductivityEconomists, Economic Theory, & Economic OrganizationsEducation & SkillsEnvironment, Climate Change, & Natural ResourcesFinance and the EconomyFinancial CrisesFinancial Markets & BankingFinancial RegulationHealthcare & WellbeingInternational FinanceInternational Trade & Exchange RatesInvestment ManagementInvestment, Infrastructure, & CitiesInvestmentsJobs, Pay, & UnemploymentMigrationMonetary Policy, Interest Rates, & InflationPersonal FinancePoverty, Inequality, & Social MobilityPublic Debt & DeficitsRegulation, Competition, & Market PowerScience, Technology, & InnovationSocial Policy & SocietyTaxes & Public SpendingTransport

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