US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Jobs and Unemployment Insurance

Question A:

Employment growth is currently constrained more by firms' lack of interest in hiring than people’s willingness to work at prevailing wages.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Reducing supplemental levels of unemployment benefits so that no workers receive more than a 100% replacement rate would be a more effective way to balance incentives and income support than simply stopping the supplement at the end of this month.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

A well-designed unemployment insurance system would tie federal contributions to states on the basis of each state’s economic and public health conditions.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 18, 2020

New Visa Ban

Question A:

Even if it is temporary, the ban on visas for skilled workers, including researchers, will weaken US leadership in STEM and R&D.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Significantly fewer top foreign students will be attracted to US universities as a result of increased restrictions on visas for skilled workers.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

If increased restrictions on visas for skilled workers are made permanent, a noticeable share of research activities by US and foreign companies will move abroad.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 26, 2020

The Search for a Vaccine

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Given the social and regulatory pressures to keep prices down for drugs and vaccines to treat Covid-19, the financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to invest in such products are below the value of the investment to society.

B) Government commitments to pay developers and manufacturers above average costs for an effective vaccine or drug treatments for Covid-19 would accelerate production.

C) Given the positive externalities from vaccination, an effective Covid-19 vaccine should be mandatory for every US resident (except those with health exceptions, such as infants and people with compromised immunity) with the cost covered by the federal government.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 23, 2020

Political Economics

Alberto Alesina, a founding member of the IGM economic experts panel, passed away in May 2020 – a sad loss for the whole research community. As the remembrances posted by the IGM directors on our website illustrate, Alberto was a fantastic economist, a wonderful person and a friend to many of the panelists.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 4, 2020

Prices of Medical Supplies

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Clearing the market for surgical face masks using prices is detrimental to the public good.

B) Laws to prevent high prices for essential goods in short supply in a crisis would raise social welfare.

C) Governments should buy essential medical supplies at what would have been the market price and redistribute according to need rather than ability to pay.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 26, 2020

Stimulus and Stabilizers

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Assuming that additional federal spending were to be structured as in the CARES Act, a substantial further spending program now will ultimately be less costly than a smaller program because it will better help to avoid long-term economic damage and promote a stronger recovery.

B) Having a fiscal rule that increases social spending on programs like unemployment insurance and SNAP based on the conditions of the economy would be an improvement on the discretionary way in which these programs are currently operated.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 19, 2020

COVID-19 and the World Economy

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.

B) A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.

C) Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

May 5, 2020

Small Firms in the Crisis

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Current institutional arrangements mean that small firms will be able to renegotiate with creditors and landlords to avoid bankruptcy during the lockdown.

B) A program that allows small businesses to skip rent and utilities during the lockdown, but repay them slowly over time afterwards, would be a net benefit to the economy.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

April 27, 2020

Income Support in the COVID-19 Crisis

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

The balance of federal and local government support to address the economic impact of the crisis has thus far been tilted too much towards supporting firms rather than individuals.

Government provision of financial support to firms to keep workers on payroll for the duration of the lockdown will make the recovery faster than if the only recourse for workers to replace income were unemployment insurance.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 20, 2020

Inequality and the COVID-19 Crisis

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) With the economy in lockdown, low-income workers who are above the poverty line will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution (even accounting for all government support schemes).

B) With the economy in lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.

C) The mortality impact of Covid-19 is likely to fall disproportionately on disadvantaged socio-economic groups.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 13, 2020