US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

COVID-19 and the World Economy

Question A:

Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

May 5, 2020

Small Firms in the Crisis

Question A:

Current institutional arrangements mean that small firms will be able to renegotiate with creditors and landlords to avoid bankruptcy during the lockdown.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

A program that allows small businesses to skip rent and utilities during the lockdown, but repay them slowly over time afterwards, would be a net benefit to the economy.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

April 27, 2020

Income Support in the COVID-19 Crisis

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

The balance of federal and local government support to address the economic impact of the crisis has thus far been tilted too much towards supporting firms rather than individuals.

Government provision of financial support to firms to keep workers on payroll for the duration of the lockdown will make the recovery faster than if the only recourse for workers to replace income were unemployment insurance.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 20, 2020

Inequality and the COVID-19 Crisis

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) With the economy in lockdown, low-income workers who are above the poverty line will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution (even accounting for all government support schemes).

B) With the economy in lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.

C) The mortality impact of Covid-19 is likely to fall disproportionately on disadvantaged socio-economic groups.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 13, 2020

Testing for Coronavirus Infections and Antibodies

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Even if tests for Covid-19 are being rationed, there is an urgent need for some random testing to establish baseline levels of the virus to inform any decisions about ending lockdowns.

B) Required elements for an economic ‘restart’ after lockdowns include a massive increase in testing capacity (for infections and antibodies) along with a coherent strategy for preventing new outbreaks and reintroducing low-risk/no-risk individuals into public activities.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 6, 2020

Policy for the COVID-19 Crisis

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) A comprehensive policy response to the coronavirus will involve tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity until the spread of infections has dropped significantly.

B) Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk.

C) Optimally, the government would invest more than it is currently doing in expanding treatment capacity through steps such as building temporary hospitals, accelerating testing, making more masks and ventilators, and providing financial incentives for the production of a successful vaccine.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

March 27, 2020

Coronavirus

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.

B) The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

March 12, 2020

Mandatory Medicare II

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to lower aggregate medical debt among patients.

B) Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to lower aggregate innovation in the pharmaceutical industry.

C) Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would improve health outcomes for the majority of the population.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 24, 2020

Mandatory Medicare I

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

a) Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to improved access to healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.

b) Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to longer waiting times for healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 24, 2020

Brexit, the UK Economy and US-UK Trade

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.

B) The near certainty that the UK will leave the European Union's customs union and single market in 2020 offers a sizeable export market opportunity for American business.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 30, 2019