US Economic Experts Panel

 

 

Despite the latest GDP figures showing that the US economy had contracted nearly 10% in the second quarter and with unemployment insurance claim numbers continuing to rise, there is still no resolution in Washington on whether the enhanced federal benefits for the jobless set to expire today (31 July) will be extended in some form.

 

An executive order by President Trump in late June has suspended a range of visas for skilled workers. We invited our panel to express their views on the potential impact of the visa ban on US leadership in science and innovation; on the attractiveness of US universities for foreign students; and on the location of corporate research facilities.

 

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Given the social and regulatory pressures to keep prices down for drugs and vaccines to treat Covid-19, the financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to invest in such products are below the value of the investment to society.

B) Government commitments to pay developers and manufacturers above average costs for an effective vaccine or drug treatments for Covid-19 would accelerate production.

C) Given the positive externalities from vaccination, an effective Covid-19 vaccine should be mandatory for every US resident (except those with health exceptions, such as infants and people with compromised immunity) with the cost covered by the federal government. 

Alberto Alesina, a founding member of the IGM economic experts panel, passed away in May 2020 – a sad loss for the whole research community. As the remembrances posted by the IGM directors on our website illustrate, Alberto was a fantastic economist, a wonderful person and a friend to many of the panelists.

 

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Clearing the market for surgical face masks using prices is detrimental to the public good.

B) Laws to prevent high prices for essential goods in short supply in a crisis would raise social welfare.

C) Governments should buy essential medical supplies at what would have been the market price and redistribute according to need rather than ability to pay.

  

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Assuming that additional federal spending were to be structured as in the CARES Act, a substantial further spending program now will ultimately be less costly than a smaller program because it will better help to avoid long-term economic damage and promote a stronger recovery.

B) Having a fiscal rule that increases social spending on programs like unemployment insurance and SNAP based on the conditions of the economy would be an improvement on the discretionary way in which these programs are currently operated. 

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.

B) A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.

C) Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.

  

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Current institutional arrangements mean that small firms will be able to renegotiate with creditors and landlords to avoid bankruptcy during the lockdown.

B) A program that allows small businesses to skip rent and utilities during the lockdown, but repay them slowly over time afterwards, would be a net benefit to the economy.