This European survey examines (a) The amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by the UK and the EU are unlikely to have a measurable direct impact on UK growth over the next two years; (b) If renewed UK-EU scientific cooperation were achieved in the wake of the Windsor framework, it would be likely to have a measurable positive impact on UK growth over the next five years
Keyword: UK
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The UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) was finally completed on 1 January 2021, nearly five years after the Brexit referendum of 2016. We invited both our European and US panels to express their views on the likely long-term effects on both the UK economy and the aggregate economy of the remaining 27 EU members. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:
The UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) was finally completed on 1 January 2021, nearly five years after the Brexit referendum of 2016. We invited both our European and US panels to express their views on the likely long-term effects on both the UK economy and the aggregate economy of the remaining 27 EU members. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) A wealth tax would be an effective way to reduce inequality.
B) A wealth tax in a form discussed in the UK (where individuals could be taxed a percentage of their net worth over £750,000, excluding any personal pension savings and their main home) would be an effective way to improve public finances after the Covid-19 crisis.
C) A public policy goal that could be accomplished with a well-enforced wealth tax could be accomplished at lower cost with modifications to existing taxes, such as income tax, capital gains tax, inheritance tax and property tax.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
B) The near certainty that the UK will leave the European Union's customs union and single market in 2020 offers a sizeable export market opportunity for American business.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
B) Given that the transition period currently expires at the end of 2020, there is still a considerable risk that the UK will leave the European Union without a trade agreement.
C) Leaving the European Union without a trade agreement would have a large negative impact on the UK economy.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statement:
Britain’s Labour party recently proposed giving the Bank of England a target of 3% annual labor productivity growth. Consider the following statement:
Central banks cannot significantly increase productivity growth over a ten year horizon, except perhaps by promoting macroeconomic stability.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Britain’s Labour party recently proposed giving the Bank of England a target of 3% annual labor productivity growth. Consider the following statement:
Central banks cannot significantly increase productivity growth over a ten year horizon, except perhaps by promoting macroeconomic stability.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) All else equal, there are substantial advantages to having much of Europe’s human capital and infrastructure for international financial activity clustered in a single city, as they are at present in London.
B) All else equal, Britain’s rules on hiring, firing and working hours are significantly more conducive to financial activity than those in other large European countries.
This week's IGM European Economics Experts Panel statements:
A) Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
B) Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
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