This Finance survey examines (a) Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values; (b) When short sellers start to establish substantial short positions in a stock, the stock is likely to have been overvalued; (c) Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the informativeness of stock prices
Keyword: sovereign bonds
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This European survey examines (a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP
This US survey examines a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP
This Finance survey examines (a) The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic. A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (b) A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market
This European survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability.
This US survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability.
This US survey examines (a) Use of the renminbi in world trade, as a reserve currency, and/or for foreign bond denomination is likely to increase substantially relative to the dollar over the next ten years; (b) Ceteris paribus, a shift to a more multi-polar international monetary system would have substantial negative implications for the US economy
This Finance survey examines (a) By issuing inflation-indexed bonds, and thereby providing a long-term real safe asset for pension funds and retirement savers, governments can make a substantial contribution to social welfare; (b) Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds substantially helps government commit to a responsible fiscal and monetary policy
With the US federal government having reached the current debt ceiling set by Congress and amid political tensions about raising the limit, we invited our panels of experts in economics and finance to express their views on the potential effects of default, as well as the ceiling’s impact on the long-run size of the debt. Over the weekend before the recent meeting between President Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, we asked the US economics panel whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:
With the US federal government having reached the current debt ceiling set by Congress and amid political tensions about raising the limit, we invited our panels of experts in economics and finance to express their views on the potential effects of default, as well as the ceiling’s impact on the long-run size of the debt. Over the weekend before the recent meeting between President Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, we asked the US economics panel whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:
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