This European survey examines (a) If the European Central Bank changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged; (b) There is a substantial benefit to having higher average inflation and by implication a higher nominal interest rate so as to avoid hitting the zero lower bound; (c) The fact that the Eurozone encompasses 20 countries – and thus the European Central Bank has 20 masters rather than one like the US Federal Reserve – eliminates the risk of fiscal dominance
Keyword: sovereign bonds
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This US survey examines (a) The Federal Reserve should be setting interest rates with the assumption that there will be no measurable effects of US tariffs on inflation by the summer of 2026; (b) If Federal Reserve Governor Cook is forced to leave her position, the inflation risk premia on US government debt will rise substantially
This Finance survey examines (a) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially increase the overall nominal cost of U.S. government borrowing; (b) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially raise risk premia on long-term U.S. government debt
This Finance survey examines (a) The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating reflects a measurable probability that an investor in U.S. Treasury securities would not be paid in full in nominal terms
This US survey examines (a) Long-run US fiscal sustainability will require some combination of slowing the growth of spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases, including higher taxes on households with incomes below $400,000; (b) Issuing an additional $2.3 trillion of debt over the next 10 years, as is projected by the Congressional Budget Office if the House Reconciliation Bill is enacted, will substantially raise interest rates on government debt over that period
This US survey examines (a) A sustained decline in the dollar's market share in the global economy will mean that US consumers are substantially worse off than they otherwise would be; (b) A permanently weaker dollar would substantially raise the US government's cost of financing its deficits
This Finance survey examines: (a) Foreign demand for US treasury securities results in substantially lower interest rates on these instruments; (b) The recent volatility in Treasury market prices is primarily due to concerns about US macroeconomic prospects
This Finance survey examines (a) The US dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency substantially raises its value; (b) US-led policy interventions that discouraged central banks from holding US treasury securities would substantially diminish the dollar's reserve currency status, (c) US-led policy interventions that led to a sustained weakening in the dollar would substantially damage the US government's ability to finance its deficits
This Finance survey examines (a) Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values; (b) When short sellers start to establish substantial short positions in a stock, the stock is likely to have been overvalued; (c) Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the informativeness of stock prices
This European survey examines (a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP
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