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This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Assuming that additional federal spending were to be structured as in the CARES Act, a substantial further spending program now will ultimately be less costly than a smaller program because it will better help to avoid long-term economic damage and promote a stronger recovery.
B) Having a fiscal rule that increases social spending on programs like unemployment insurance and SNAP based on the conditions of the economy would be an improvement on the discretionary way in which these programs are currently operated.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.
B) A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.
C) Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Even if tests for Covid-19 are being rationed, there is an urgent need for some random testing to establish baseline levels of the virus to inform any decisions about ending lockdowns.
B) Required elements for an economic ‘restart’ after lockdowns include a massive increase in testing capacity (for infections and antibodies) along with a coherent strategy for preventing new outbreaks and reintroducing low-risk/no-risk individuals into public activities.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.
B) The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.
B) The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.
C) The economic policy institutions of the Eurozone are well equipped to ameliorate the potential economic damage from COVID-19.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
China’s growth model, specifically the unusually high investment rate and low consumption rate, is unsustainable.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on February 15, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
B: Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill.
B) Taking into account all of the ARRA's economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
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