Recent nominations to join the board of governors of the Federal Reserve have raised concerns about political threats to the independence of monetary policy-making. The Economist has explained the dangers of weakened central banks, not only in the United States but also elsewhere in the world. And economists and economic journalists have questioned the economic ideas of President Trump’s latest Fed picks, both of whom have now withdrawn their names.
Keyword: political economy
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This week's IGM European Experts Panel Statement:
Voters overestimate the effect that current governments have on their economies’ concurrent economic performance.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) By providing electronic benefit cards to choose and buy groceries at stores, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program currently does more for its recipients' well-being than it would if the program directly provided a smaller array of foods to its recipients, while commensurately reducing the amount they could spend on groceries of their own choosing.
B) By providing electronic benefit cards to choose and buy groceries at stores, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program currently does more to raise food security and reduce hunger than it would if the program directly provided a smaller array of foods to its recipients, while commensurately reducing the amount they could spend on groceries of their own choosing.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate— and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
B) If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate— and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — the US debt-to-GDP ratio will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States.
B) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Forecasting the effects of complex legislative actions is hard, so even competent, non-ideological and non-partisan projections could differ substantially from outcomes.
B) Adjusting for legal restrictions on what the CBO can assume about future legislation and events, the CBO has historically issued credible forecasts of the effects of both Democratic and Republican legislative proposals.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) There is no perfect voting system. That is, no voting system can ensure that the winner will be the person who best represents voters’ wishes, including how intensely they favor or disfavor each candidate.
B) One clear defect of a winner-take-all election with 3 or more candidates, and with each voter choosing only one candidate, is that a candidate who is strongly disliked by a majority, but strongly liked by a minority, can beat a candidate who is liked by a majority and disliked by relatively few.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)
B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Past experience suggests that economic sanctions do little to deter the target countries from their course of action.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Slavery in the United States was eradicated because of social and political events, not because it was an unprofitable institution for slaveholders.
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