This US survey examines (a) The US intervention in Venezuela will have no measurable impact on the world oil price over the next 12 months; (b) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in the profitability of US energy companies over the next five years; (c) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in economic growth in Venezuela over the next five years
Keyword: political economy
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This European survey examines (a) The US intervention in Venezuela will have no measurable impact on the world oil price over the next 12 months; (b) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in the profitability of US energy companies over the next five years; (c) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in economic growth in Venezuela over the next five years
This Finance survey examines (a) U.S. government ownership of equity stakes in U.S. companies is measurably detrimental to corporate performance; (b) U.S. government ownership of equity stakes in U.S. companies is substantially detrimental to good corporate governance
This European survey examines (a) If the European Central Bank changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged; (b) There is a substantial benefit to having higher average inflation and by implication a higher nominal interest rate so as to avoid hitting the zero lower bound; (c) The fact that the Eurozone encompasses 20 countries – and thus the European Central Bank has 20 masters rather than one like the US Federal Reserve – eliminates the risk of fiscal dominance
This US survey examines (a) The Federal Reserve should be setting interest rates with the assumption that there will be no measurable effects of US tariffs on inflation by the summer of 2026; (b) If Federal Reserve Governor Cook is forced to leave her position, the inflation risk premia on US government debt will rise substantially
This Finance survey examines (a) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially increase the overall nominal cost of U.S. government borrowing; (b) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially raise risk premia on long-term U.S. government debt
This US survey examines (a) The experience of the past 10 years suggests that Western-led economic sanctions do not substantially deter the target countries from their course of action; (b) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, Russia's current military and economic position would be substantially worse; (c) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, the world economy would have faced substantially higher oil prices
This European survey examines (a) The experience of the past 10 years suggests that Western-led economic sanctions do not substantially deter the target countries from their course of action; (b) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, Russia's current military and economic position would be substantially worse; (c) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, the world economy would have faced substantially higher oil prices
This European survey examines (a) A period of high inflation is substantially more electorally damaging to incumbent governments in advanced countries than a period of high unemployment; (b) Voters are more likely to punish incumbents for what they perceive as poor national economic performance than they are to reward incumbents for a good economy
This European survey examines (a) The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes; (b) On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government; (c) Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance
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