This US survey examines: (a) Giving the President more direct influence over monetary policy would lead to substantially worse monetary policy decisions; (b) Imposing tariffs results in a substantial portion of the tariffs being borne by consumers of the country that enacts the tariffs, through price increases; (c) There is little empirical evidence that price gouging is causing high grocery prices; (d) Widespread use of price controls creates substantial economic distortions
Keyword: monetary policy
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This Finance survey examines that it seems likely that Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market recently to prop up the yen – see, for example: https://www.ft.com/content/455784ec-0465-46ee-8c73-fc5ce3e31c37. In such circumstances, intervention refers to purchases or sales of domestic or foreign currency without changing the monetary policy stance (a) Large-scale intervention by public authorities in currency markets can move exchange rates substantially (b) The effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions can last beyond one month
This European survey examines (a) Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency; (b) With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances
This European survey examines (a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP
This US survey examines a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP
This Finance survey examines (a) The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic. A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (b) A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market
This Finance survey examines: (a) September 2023 was the 25th anniversary of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). In response to LTCM's troubles, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a multi-billion dollar rescue package by a consortium of banks and it cut the Federal funds rate target by 75 basis points within six weeks. The hedge fund sector's contribution to systemic risk is substantially lower today than at the time of LTCM; (b) Financial market participants' expectation that the Fed will aggressively ease monetary policy in response to financial market dislocations is a substantial source of financial instability.
This US survey examines (a) When evaluating the consequences of any shifts in economic policy regimes, it is essential to consider potential changes in the behavior of economic agents due to revised expectations; (b) The empirical evidence on how monetary policy affects the economy in the short run is most consistent with the assumption that economic agents form rational expectations; (c) Economic research has established that the welfare consequences of differences in countries’ growth and level of development are substantially higher than the welfare costs of business cycles
This Finance survey examines (a) By issuing inflation-indexed bonds, and thereby providing a long-term real safe asset for pension funds and retirement savers, governments can make a substantial contribution to social welfare; (b) Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds substantially helps government commit to a responsible fiscal and monetary policy
This US survey examines (a) When economic policy-makers are unable to commit credibly in advance to a specific decision rule, they will often follow a poor policy trajectory; (b) Rules-based fiscal policies deliver substantially better outcomes than purely discretionary, on the spot, policy choices.
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