This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The fiscal rules of the European Union should give more flexibility to member countries.
B) The Italian budget for 2019 that the European Commission rejected in October would have increased Italy’s risk of fiscal insolvency substantially.
C) If France runs a 2019 budget deficit of around 3.4% of GDP, as announced by President Macron’s government, France’s risk of fiscal insolvency will increase substantially.
Keyword: Italy
a la carte pricing abortion access to credit acquisitions active investing Adam Smith advertising Affordable Care Act Africa agglomeration aging airline industry alternative investments amateurism Amazon American Recovery and Reinvestment Act American Rescue Plan anti-competitive behavior antitrust Argentina artificial intelligence arts asset allocation asset classes asset management asset pricing asset purchases asset returns asset valuation assets AT&T auctions austerity automatic enrollment automation automobile industry autonomous cars
bailouts balance sheet balanced budget bank failures bank finance Bank of England bank regulation bank runs banking banking crises banking rules banking sector banking union bankruptcy banks bans behavioral economics behavioral finance benefits betting Big Tech Bitcoin board quotas bonds bonuses book market border adjustment tax borrowing and lending Brexit budget deficits budget scoring bundling bureaucracy business cycles buy American
cable and satellite TV California Canada cannabis cap-and-trade capital capital allocation capital asset pricing model capital budgeting capital flows capital formation capital income capital markets capital outflows capital regulation capital requirements capital stock capitalism CAPM carbon emissions carbon leakage carbon prices carbon tax carbon taxes careers CARES Act cars cash central bank independence central banks charitable deductions charity charter schools chief executives childrearing children China Christmas climate change climate policies climate policy climate targets closing auction clusters college admissions college athletes college tuition colonialism commercial banks commercial property commodity markets communism competition competition policy competitiveness concentration congestion congestion charges congestion pricing Congress Congressional Budget Office Connecticut consolidation constitutional amendment constitutions consumer price index consumer prices consumer protection consumer welfare consumption consumption insurance contraception conventions coronabonds Coronavirus corporate boards corporate executives corporate investment corporate performance corporate reporting corporate reproting corporate social responsibility corporate tax corporate taxes cost disease cost of capital cost of living cost-benefit analysis costs of living Council of Economic Advisors COVID-19 credibility revolution credit credit cards credit risk creditors crime crypto assets cryptocurrencies cryptocurrency Cuba culture currencies currency currency manipulation currency reserves customers
data data protection debt debt brake debt ceiling debt obligations debt relief debt support debt sustainability debt-to-GDP ratio default defaults defense economics deflation DEI democracy democratic legitimacy dependency ratio deposit insurance destination-based cash flow tax destintation-based cash flow tax Detroit developing countries developing economies development economics digital currency digital economy digital infrastructure digital markets Digital Markets Act digital service providers digital services discount rates discrimination disease diseases disruption distributional effects diversification diversity dollar dollarization dominant firms doom loops drought drug prices drug use duration dutch disease dynamic scoring
early years earnings Eastern Europe economic agents economic geography economic growth economic history economic insecurity economic integration economic performance economic performance; electoral cycles; government policy; political economy; public policy; voters economic principles economic recovery economic reseach economic stimulus Economics 101 economists education educational quality efficiency efficient markets elections electoral cycles electric vehicles emerging markets empirical economics employees employment employment contracts employment effects employment protection end-of-day trading energy energy policy environmental regulation equal pay equities equity equity injections equity risk premium ESG ESMA essential goods ethanol euro euro exit Europe European Central Bank European champions European Commission European recovery fund European Union Europen Union Eurozone ex-ante regulation exchange rate adjustment exchange rates exchange-traded products executive compensation expectations experiments export restrictions exports externalities extreme weather
Facebook faculty pay fairness family size Fannie Mae fast-track authority FDIC federal regulations Federal Reserve fee caps fee transparency fees fiduciary duty financial crises financial crisis financial markets financial performance financial policy financial regulation financial regulations bank runs financial services financial stability finished good prices firm capabilities firm finances firm location first past the post fiscal benefits fiscal cliff fiscal councils fiscal deficit fiscal deficits fiscal policy fiscal rules fiscal stimulus fiscal sustainability floods food prices food security forecasting foreign aid foreign direct investment fossil fuels fracking France Freddie Mac free markets free movement free trade full capacity fund performance fundamental value fungibility
G7 gambling game theory gasoline GDP GDP growth gender gaps gentrification geographical mobility geopolitics Germany gift-giving global commerce global financial crisis global minimum tax global minimum tax rate global supply chains globalization gold Gold Standard Google government borrowing government budget government budgets government MMFs government policy Greece greedflation green technologies green technology green transition
hard drugs health insurance health outcomes healthcare costs healthcare quality healthcare reform hedge funds high-skill workers high-skilled workers higher education hihg-debt countries holidays household finances household welfare households housing markets human capital hurricanes
ideas illegal activities immigrant visas immigration import duties import restrictions imports impossibility theorem incentives income inequality income support income tax increasing returns to scale incumbents index funds indexing industrial polic industrial policy inequality inflation inflation target inflation-indexed bonds inflation-linked bonds information infrastructure innovation input prices inside information Instagram institutions insurance intellectual property interest rates intergenerational mobility intermediate goods intermediation international agreements international monetary system internet internet: profits investment investment grade investment management investment policy investment portfolio investment returns invisible hand Ireland Italy
labor force participation labor income labor market labor market flexibility labor markets labor productivity labor regulations labor supply Laffer curve laissez-faire land use land value tax landlords law and economics legacy preference legal liability legalisation legislative proposals lender of last resort leverage liabilities liberal democracy licensing life expectancy life outcomes liquefied natural gas liquidity listings listings securities exchanges living standards llong-term borrowing loan relief loans lobbying local government lockdowns London long-term borrowing lotteries low-income low-income households low-skill workers LTCM Luxembourg
macroeconomic stability macroprudential policy Maine majority rule mandated disclosures manufacturing marginal tax rates marijuana mark to market market anomalies market cap market concentration market dominance market efficiency market indices market intervention market microstructure market power market quality market volatility maturity transformation maximum sustainable employment Medicaid medical debt medical research Medicare medium of exchange mega-banks mergers mergers & acquisitions mergers and acquisitions Mexico Microsoft migration minimum retirement age minimum wage minimum wage|labor market|low-skill workers|unemployment|productivity||||| mismeasurement mobility Modern Monetary Theory monetary policy money creation money market funds monopsony power moral hazard mortality mortgages museums music events mutual funds
NAFTA Nash equilibrium national debt national security natural disasters natural gas natural resources net neutrality net zero Netherlands network externalities new entry New York Nippon Steel Nobel Prize Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences Nobel Prize in Economics non-bank financial intermediaries non-compete clauses non-tariff barriers Northern Ireland Norway nudge policies
OASI trust fund obesity occupational choice occupational licensing offshore accounts offshoring oil prices Omicron online sales online sales tax open economies order execution output gap outsourcing overheating
panics passive investing patent trolls patents payday lending payroll taxes peer review pension funds pensions personal finance pharmaceutical industry physical infrastructure physical risks platforms policy advice policy entrepreneurs political appointments political economy pollution populism portfolio allocation portfolio diversification portfolio management portfolio theory Portugal poverty poverty reduction pre-school education prescription drugs President Biden President Obama President Trump price cap price caps price controls price gouging primary voting private credit private equity private firms private funds private schools privatization product quality production production capacity productivity professional sports teams profitability profits prohibition property rights property taxes protectionism psychology public corporations public debt public finances public goods public health public ownership public policy public procurement public revenues public schools public transport public utilities publishers purchasing power
R&D R&D spillovers race radiospectrum random audits randomized control trials ranked-choice voting rationality real estate real wages recession recovery redemptions redistribution referendum refugees regressive tax regulation regulations remuneration renewable energy renminbi rent control rent-seeking repatriated profits reserve currency resilience resource allocation retail retail investors retirees retirement retirement age retirement benefits return on investment returns returns to education ride-sharing ride-sharing caps risk management risk-return risk-taking robots rule of law rules runs Russia
safety sales tax San Francisco sanctions savings school vouchers schools Science Scotland Scottish independence SEC secondary markets Section 230 sectoral policies security screening self-control semiconductors services shareholder activism shareholder value shareholders shares shipping short selling single market skills slavery small firms smartphones soccer social benefits social cohesion social costs social integration social justice social media social mobility social norms social problems social programs Social Security social welfare social/public housing sociial welfare soft drinks software industry solar energy sovereign bonds sovereign debt sovereign wealth funds soverign bonds Spain speculation sports Stability and Growth Pact stablecoins stagflation stakeholders standardized tests start-ups state aid state budgets statistics steel steel industry steel tariffs sterling stock buybacks stock market stock prices stock returns store of value strategic behavior strategic sectors stress tests student loans students subsidies sugar sugar tax Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program supply chain supply chains Supreme Court surge pricing sustainability systemic risk
targeting tariffs tax avoidance tax competition tax credits tax cuts tax deductions tax enforcement tax evasion tax harmonization tax incentives tax rates tax reform tax revenues taxes taxis taxonomy taxpayer guarantees teaching tech compaies tech companies technological change Technology telecommunications telecoms terrorists Tesla test scores testing textbooks theory ticket resale TikTok time consistency Time Warner too big to fail tourism tournaments trade agreements trade balances trade barriers trade deficits trade embargo trade liberalization trade policy trade sanctions trade war trade wars trading rules training transition economies transparency transport transport networks travel travel bans Treasury bonds tulipmania TV fees twin deficits Twitter
Uber UK Ukraine uncertainty undergraduate economics unemployment unemployment insurance uninsured deposits unions universal basic income universities urban development urban neighborhoods US states US Steel US Treasuries
This week's European IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Setting the EU rules aside, and assuming it would take 2.5% of Italy’s GDP to recapitalize its banks, the Italian government would improve financial stability in Europe if it injected this amount of public funds into its banks.
B) If Italy were to inject public funds into its banks without imposing losses on at least some claimants, an important cost would be the effect on future incentives (economic or political) in Europe.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A. Even if all the official-sector funding that Greece received from 2010 through August 2012 is written off, propping up Greece to buy time for the rest of Europe to prepare for Greek default has been better for citizens of the Eurozone outside of Greece than a policy that would have cut off funding sooner.
B. A substantial sovereign-debt default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain is a necessary condition for the euro area as a whole to grow at its pre-crisis trend rate over the next three years.
C. Unless there is a substantial default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain on their sovereign debt and commercial bank debt, plus credible reforms to prevent excessive borrowing in the future, the euro area is headed for a costly financial meltdown and a prolonged recession.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) Credible assumptions for inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either the Debt-to-GDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian interest rates on 10-year government debt remained at the November 30 level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond market.
B) Absent outside help to deal with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spending-and-tax plan Italy can announce that would be credible enough to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its Debt-to-GDP ratio.
Compare yourself or your peers to the Clark Center Economics Experts Panel
