This European survey examines (a) A legalized and carefully regulated market for cannabis would lead to measurably higher social welfare than a system of prohibition
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This European survey examines (a) A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances; (b) Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Germany's current account surplus is undesirable even from a purely German viewpoint: the country would be better off if, for example, it ran a smaller primary surplus, in turn leading to a smaller current account surplus.
B) The Eurozone would be in better shape if fiscal policy were more expansionary, which would allow monetary policy to be slightly less so.
C) If there is a recession in the Eurozone, it will be essential to have a coordinated fiscal expansion.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Subsidizing renewable energy sources is better than taxing fossil fuels, assuming the subsidy or tax would be set at levels that would reduce carbon emissions by an equivalent amount.
B) Germany’s solar-energy subsidies to date have produced net social benefits for Germany.
C) Solar-energy subsidies to date in Germany and other countries have produced net social benefits for the world.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statement:
The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.
B) If Germany fails to bail out the southern tier of Europe, its own economy will be hurt more — because of output and asset losses — than it would be by an unconditional bailout.
C) The main reason other eurozone countries need to worry about Greek banks losing access to ECB support is because the ensuing chaos in Greece could trigger bank runs in peripheral countries.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) Credible assumptions for inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either the Debt-to-GDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian interest rates on 10-year government debt remained at the November 30 level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond market.
B) Absent outside help to deal with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spending-and-tax plan Italy can announce that would be credible enough to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its Debt-to-GDP ratio.
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