This European survey examines (a) The amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by the UK and the EU are unlikely to have a measurable direct impact on UK growth over the next two years; (b) If renewed UK-EU scientific cooperation were achieved in the wake of the Windsor framework, it would be likely to have a measurable positive impact on UK growth over the next five years
Keyword: GDP growth
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This US survey examines (a) In the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, the level of Florida’s GDP in five years will be substantially lower than it otherwise would; (b) The prospect of further costly extreme weather events means that there is a substantial chance that some private property insurance markets will no longer exist in ten years in states such as Florida; (c) Without large government subsidies, mandated flood insurance requirements would substantially reduce losses from subsequent natural disasters by encouraging economic activity to migrate from the most flood-prone areas
This European survey examines (a) The UK’s removal of the cap on bankers' bonuses (introduced by the EU in 2014 and which limits payouts to two times annual base salary) will provide a measurable boost to the country’s economic growth; (b) Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will measurably enhance the global competitiveness of the UK’s financial services sector; (c) Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will pose a measurable risk to financial stability in the UK.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Restoring the top individual federal income tax rate to 39.6% for incomes over $400,000 (from the current 37%) and taxing the capital gains and dividends of taxpayers with income over $1 million at that top rate (instead of the current preferential rate of 20%), with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be unlikely to hurt economic growth noticeably.
B) Restoring the top tax rate, removing the preferential rate on capital gains and dividends, and raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be likely to lead to a meaningful sustained reduction in fiscal deficits.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The most powerful force pushing towards greater wealth inequality in the US since the 1970s is the gap between the after-tax return on capital and the economic growth rate.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Future innovations worldwide will not be transformational enough to promote sustained per-capita economic growth rates in the U.S. and western Europe over the next century as high as those over the past 150 years.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Cuba’s low per-capita income growth — 1.2 percent per year since 1960 —has more to do with Cuba’s own economic policies than with the U.S. embargo on trade and tourism.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
All else equal, the Fed's new plan to increase the maturity of its Treasury holdings will boost expected real GDP growth for calendar year 2012 by at least one percentage point.
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