This US survey examines (a) Long-run US fiscal sustainability will require some combination of slowing the growth of spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases, including higher taxes on households with incomes below $400,000; (b) Issuing an additional $2.3 trillion of debt over the next 10 years, as is projected by the Congressional Budget Office if the House Reconciliation Bill is enacted, will substantially raise interest rates on government debt over that period
Keyword: fiscal deficits
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This US survey examines (a) A sustained decline in the dollar's market share in the global economy will mean that US consumers are substantially worse off than they otherwise would be; (b) A permanently weaker dollar would substantially raise the US government's cost of financing its deficits
This Finance survey examines (a) The US dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency substantially raises its value; (b) US-led policy interventions that discouraged central banks from holding US treasury securities would substantially diminish the dollar's reserve currency status, (c) US-led policy interventions that led to a sustained weakening in the dollar would substantially damage the US government's ability to finance its deficits
This European survey examines (a) A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances; (b) Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition
This European survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability.
This US survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability.
This European survey examines (a) Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework; (b) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules; (c) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules
This US survey examines (a) Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework; (b) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules; (c) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules
This US survey examines (a) If it is implemented, the proposed increase in the tax rate on earned and business income above $400,000 in the Biden budget, along with other proposed changes to Medicare, would extend the solvency of the Medicare program for the next 25 years; (b) If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in drug prices for beneficiaries; (c) If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in the development of beneficial new drugs
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