This European survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability.
Keyword: fiscal councils
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data data protection debt debt brake debt ceiling debt obligations debt relief debt support debt sustainability debt-to-GDP ratio default defaults defense economics deflation DEI democracy democratic legitimacy dependency ratio deposit insurance destination-based cash flow tax destintation-based cash flow tax Detroit developing countries developing economies development economics digital currency digital economy digital infrastructure digital markets Digital Markets Act digital service providers digital services discount rates discrimination disease diseases disruption distributional effects diversification diversity dollar dollarization dominant firms doom loops drought drug prices drug use duration dutch disease dynamic scoring
early years earnings Eastern Europe economic agents economic geography economic growth economic history economic insecurity economic integration economic performance economic performance; electoral cycles; government policy; political economy; public policy; voters economic principles economic recovery economic reseach economic stimulus Economics 101 economists education educational quality efficiency efficient markets elections electoral cycles electric vehicles emerging markets empirical economics employees employment employment contracts employment effects employment protection end-of-day trading energy energy policy environmental regulation equal pay equities equity equity injections equity risk premium ESG ESMA essential goods ethanol euro euro exit Europe European Central Bank European champions European Commission European recovery fund European Union Europen Union Eurozone ex-ante regulation exchange rate adjustment exchange rates exchange-traded products executive compensation expectations experiments export restrictions exports externalities extreme weather
Facebook faculty pay fairness family size Fannie Mae fast-track authority FDIC federal regulations Federal Reserve fee caps fee transparency fees fiduciary duty financial crises financial crisis financial markets financial performance financial policy financial regulation financial regulations bank runs financial services financial stability finished good prices firm capabilities firm finances firm location first past the post fiscal benefits fiscal cliff fiscal councils fiscal deficit fiscal deficits fiscal policy fiscal rules fiscal stimulus fiscal sustainability floods food prices food security forecasting foreign aid foreign direct investment fossil fuels fracking France Freddie Mac free markets free movement free trade full capacity fund performance fundamental value fungibility
G7 gambling game theory gasoline GDP GDP growth gender gaps gentrification geographical mobility geopolitics Germany gift-giving global commerce global financial crisis global minimum tax global minimum tax rate global supply chains globalization gold Gold Standard Google government borrowing government budget government budgets government MMFs government policy Greece greedflation green technologies green technology green transition
hard drugs health insurance health outcomes healthcare costs healthcare quality healthcare reform hedge funds high-skill workers high-skilled workers higher education hihg-debt countries holidays household finances household welfare households housing markets human capital hurricanes
ideas illegal activities immigrant visas immigration import duties import restrictions imports impossibility theorem incentives income inequality income support income tax increasing returns to scale incumbents index funds indexing industrial polic industrial policy inequality inflation inflation target inflation-indexed bonds inflation-linked bonds information infrastructure innovation input prices inside information Instagram institutions insurance intellectual property interest rates intergenerational mobility intermediate goods intermediation international agreements international monetary system internet internet: profits investment investment grade investment management investment policy investment portfolio investment returns invisible hand Ireland Italy
labor force participation labor income labor market labor market flexibility labor markets labor productivity labor regulations labor supply Laffer curve laissez-faire land use land value tax landlords law and economics legacy preference legal liability legalisation legislative proposals lender of last resort leverage liabilities liberal democracy licensing life expectancy life outcomes liquefied natural gas liquidity listings listings securities exchanges living standards llong-term borrowing loan relief loans lobbying local government lockdowns London long-term borrowing lotteries low-income low-income households low-skill workers LTCM Luxembourg
macroeconomic stability macroprudential policy Maine majority rule mandated disclosures manufacturing marginal tax rates marijuana mark to market market anomalies market cap market concentration market dominance market efficiency market indices market intervention market microstructure market power market quality market volatility maturity transformation maximum sustainable employment Medicaid medical debt medical research Medicare medium of exchange mega-banks mergers mergers & acquisitions mergers and acquisitions Mexico Microsoft migration minimum retirement age minimum wage minimum wage|labor market|low-skill workers|unemployment|productivity||||| mismeasurement mobility Modern Monetary Theory monetary policy money creation money market funds monopsony power moral hazard mortality mortgages museums music events mutual funds
NAFTA Nash equilibrium national debt national security natural disasters natural gas natural resources net neutrality net zero Netherlands network externalities new entry New York Nippon Steel Nobel Prize Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences Nobel Prize in Economics non-bank financial intermediaries non-compete clauses non-tariff barriers Northern Ireland Norway nudge policies
OASI trust fund obesity occupational choice occupational licensing offshore accounts offshoring oil prices Omicron online sales online sales tax open economies order execution output gap outsourcing overheating
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R&D R&D spillovers race radiospectrum random audits randomized control trials ranked-choice voting rationality real estate real wages recession recovery redemptions redistribution referendum refugees regressive tax regulation regulations remuneration renewable energy renminbi rent control rent-seeking repatriated profits reserve currency resilience resource allocation retail retail investors retirees retirement retirement age retirement benefits return on investment returns returns to education ride-sharing ride-sharing caps risk management risk-return risk-taking robots rule of law rules runs Russia
safety sales tax San Francisco sanctions savings school vouchers schools Science Scotland Scottish independence SEC secondary markets Section 230 sectoral policies security screening self-control semiconductors services shareholder activism shareholder value shareholders shares shipping short selling single market skills slavery small firms smartphones soccer social benefits social cohesion social costs social integration social justice social media social mobility social norms social problems social programs Social Security social welfare social/public housing sociial welfare soft drinks software industry solar energy sovereign bonds sovereign debt sovereign wealth funds soverign bonds Spain speculation sports Stability and Growth Pact stablecoins stagflation stakeholders standardized tests start-ups state aid state budgets statistics steel steel industry steel tariffs sterling stock buybacks stock market stock prices stock returns store of value strategic behavior strategic sectors stress tests student loans students subsidies sugar sugar tax Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program supply chain supply chains Supreme Court surge pricing sustainability systemic risk
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Uber UK Ukraine uncertainty undergraduate economics unemployment unemployment insurance uninsured deposits unions universal basic income universities urban development urban neighborhoods US states US Steel US Treasuries
This US survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability.
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