This European survey examines (a) Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency; (b) With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances
Keyword: Eurozone
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This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Under a fixed exchange rate and fully liberalized capital flows, a country loses domestic control of monetary policy.
B) For emerging and developing economies open to the world capital market, a flexible exchange rate confers little advantage over a pegged exchange rate in terms of economic stability.
C) The key feature making the US a more natural optimum currency area than the euro area is higher labor mobility.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) In an economy open to capital flows, monetary policy can only be effective with a floating exchange rate.
B) For emerging and developing economies open to the world capital market, a flexible exchange rate confers little advantage over a pegged exchange rate in terms of economic stability.
C) The key feature making the US a more natural optimum currency area than the euro area is higher labor mobility.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.
B) The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.
C) The economic policy institutions of the Eurozone are well equipped to ameliorate the potential economic damage from COVID-19.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Germany's current account surplus is undesirable even from a purely German viewpoint: the country would be better off if, for example, it ran a smaller primary surplus, in turn leading to a smaller current account surplus.
B) The Eurozone would be in better shape if fiscal policy were more expansionary, which would allow monetary policy to be slightly less so.
C) If there is a recession in the Eurozone, it will be essential to have a coordinated fiscal expansion.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
Selecting candidates for membership of the ECB Executive Board based primarily on nationality ahead of competence is likely to have a negative effect on the quality of monetary policy in the Eurozone.
Although the central bank can never be an entirely technocratic institution, the selection process for the ECB President and members of the Executive Board is significantly worsened by intergovernmental trade-offs involving appointments to other European institutions.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) Assuming it exits its third bailout program this summer without an immediate restructuring or other debt relief, Greece is unlikely to default on its sovereign debt in the coming decade.
B) Greece would be better off if it had decided to exit the euro between 2011 and 2015.
C) If Greece had defaulted on (or restructured) its private debt in 2010, while also staying within the euro, that combination would have been better for Greece than either exiting the euro or proceeding as it has actually done.
This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The ECB's asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole.
B) If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB's asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area's economic growth over the following five years.
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