This Finance survey examines (a) The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating reflects a measurable probability that an investor in U.S. Treasury securities would not be paid in full in nominal terms
Keyword: debt sustainability
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This US survey examines (a) Long-run US fiscal sustainability will require some combination of slowing the growth of spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases, including higher taxes on households with incomes below $400,000; (b) Issuing an additional $2.3 trillion of debt over the next 10 years, as is projected by the Congressional Budget Office if the House Reconciliation Bill is enacted, will substantially raise interest rates on government debt over that period
This US survey examines (a) The Trustees of the U.S. Social Security system currently estimate that the OASI trust fund will be exhausted in 2033, after which substantial benefit cuts are mandated without a change in the law. The response to the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund is likely to rely more on general government borrowing than on increases in social security taxes or reductions in social security benefits; (b) As in the most recent major change in Social Security finances (adopted in 1983), the most prudent way to address the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund would feature a balanced combination of payroll tax increases and reductions in the benefits received for any given retirement age
This European survey examines (a) Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency; (b) With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances
This European survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability.
This US survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability.
This European survey examines (a) Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework; (b) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules; (c) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules
This US survey examines (a) Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework; (b) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules; (c) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules
This US survey examines (a) When economic policy-makers are unable to commit credibly in advance to a specific decision rule, they will often follow a poor policy trajectory; (b) Rules-based fiscal policies deliver substantially better outcomes than purely discretionary, on the spot, policy choices.
This Finance survey examines (a) The costs and risks associated with a sharp fall in the value of sterling outweigh any macroeconomic benefits for the UK of export stimulus due to a weaker currency; (b) Concerns about government finances and debt sustainability can undermine the reserve currency status of a major currency
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