US

Vaccines

Question A:

Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Considering the costs of restricting free choice, and the share of people in the US who choose not to vaccinate their children for measles, the social benefit of mandating measles vaccines for all Americans (except those with compelling medical reasons) would exceed the social cost.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The vaccine is not infallible, and some people cannot be covered.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The word " contagion" and the adverse consequence of disease directly imply the result, logically.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Even those vaccinated can get the disease so there is an external cost both to the vaccinated and the non vaccinated.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The science seems absolutely clear. If you are not vaccincated others are more likely to catch the disease ( as well as you).
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
This is "first principles" in economics.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Costs grow as the number declining rises which the doubters do not seem to appreciate
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
This is one of the periodic questions designed to see whether respondents are awake. True by definition.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
New infections keep coming in as people travel. Why allow parents to hurt their children
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I am not qualified to opine on any specific disease but in general mandatory vaccine programs solve the free rider issue.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Strictly speaking, social choice in this setting is not obvious. Here, many benefit significantly at hopefully a small cost by fewer.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Another way to internalize the externality is to make those who don't get vaccinated pay a fine. But a mandate is adminstratively easier.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
This question requires one to impose a social welfare function which is something an economist should NEVER do. No one made us God.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Measels had been eliminated, it is a shame that it is back. But we should be careful about mandates in general.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Goes beyond economics. Many precedents on each side. If measles for children, why not mandatory flu vaccines for adults?
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
But it would be quite reasonable to limit the negative externality imposed by the unvaccinated by, e.g., excluding them from public schools.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Children are not choosing for themselves here; this would just add to the set of harmful choices that parents are not allowed to make.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Costs increase with the opt out rate. It would be possible to increase the vaccination rate short of a mandate by making opting out harder.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Depends on the epidemiology of measles which I don't know (as well as the (low) cost of mandates and (high) cost of the disease).
-see background information here