Following the Biden administration’s announcement of its intention to require that anyone at a firm with more than 100 employees or in the federal workforce be vaccinated or tested regularly, we invited our US panel to express their views on the likely economic impact of the vaccine mandate. We asked the experts whether they agree or disagree with the following statement, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:
Mandating staff vaccinations and/or regular testing at big employers would promote a faster and stronger economic recovery.
Of our 43 US experts, 42 participated in this survey and they are unanimous in agreeing with the statement. Weighted by each expert’s confidence in their response, 74% of the panel strongly agree, 26% agree, and 0% are uncertain or disagree.
The experts are able to include short comments in their responses, and many took the opportunity to add nuance to their agreement or strong agreement with the statement. For example, Steven Kaplan at Chicago comments: ‘Agree. But given the evidence that having had Covid provides similar immunity, also should accept previous Covid infections’; while Daron Acemoglu at MIT notes: ‘But vaccines and testing are not perfect substitutes. Vaccination is absolutely necessary for reaching something resembling “herd immunity”.’
Others call for stronger action. Aaron Edlin at Berkeley says: ‘Mandates should extend much further and include eligible students in school and anyone in a public setting with limited exceptions.’ Robert Hall at Stanford states: ‘Universal vaccination mandate even better.’ And Judith Chevalier at Yale adds: ‘A massive increase in rapid testing usage would further help.’
Several panelists referred directly to the links between public health and the economy. Eric Maskin at Harvard observes: ‘Covid is now being transmitted primarily by unvaccinated people, and these cases cause substantial economic damage.’ And his colleague James Stock says: ‘The economy continues to be held back by Covid, more vaccination will reduce prevalence’, adding a link to his co-authored study of the economic benefits of Covid tests with a vaccine rollout.
Larry Samuelson at Yale explains: ‘Economic recovery requires solving the public health problem. Vaccines are our most powerful tool in bringing the virus under control.’ Jose Scheinkman at Columbia notes: ‘Largest benefit is decrease in hospitalization/death, but increased vaccination in low uptake groups/areas should help economic performance.’
A couple of experts comment on how big the economic impact of the vaccine mandate might be. Abhijit Banerjee at MIT says: ‘I think the direction is right but the magnitude is hard to tell.’ David Autor at MIT takes a view: ‘I agree that this will likely make a positive contribution to the recovery – but very likely a small positive contribution.’
Finally, two panelists outline the potential trade-offs in the mandate’s economic effects. Robert Shimer at Chicago suggests that: ‘Speeding the end of Covid promotes recovery, but this may drive some committed anti-vaxxers away from affected employers. Agree on balance.’ Darrell Duffie at Stanford concludes: ‘Growth downside: quits by refusers. Growth upsides: healthier workers (supply), reduced contagion and health costs. Upsides dominate.’
All comments made by the experts are in the full survey results.
Romesh Vaitilingam
@econromesh
September 2021
Mandating staff vaccinations and/or regular testing at big employers would promote a faster and stronger economic recovery.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
But vaccines and testing are not perfect substitutes. Vaccination is absolutely necessary for reaching something resembling "herd immunity".
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
I agree that this will likely make a positive contribution to the recovery -- but very likely a _small_ positive contribution
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
I think the direction is right but the magnitude is hard to tell
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
A massive increase in rapid testing usage would further help.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Growth downside: quits by refusers. Growth upsides: healthier workers (supply), reduced contagion and health costs. Upsides dominate.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Mandates should extend much further and include eligible students in school and anyone in a public setting with limited exceptions.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
How are we seriously still arguing about this?
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Universal vaccination mandate even better
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is my view of the effect, not whether such a mandate takes sufficiently account of varying views.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Agree. But given the evidence that having had COVID provides similar immunity, also should accept previous COVID infections.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Covid is now being transmitted primarily by un-vaccinated people, and these cases cause substantial economic damage.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Economic recovery requires solving the public health problem. Vaccines are our most powerful tool in bringing the virus under control.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Largest benefit is decrease in hospitalization/death but increase vaccination in low uptake groups/areas should help economic performance.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Speeding the end of covid promotes recovery, but this may drive some committed anti-vaxxers away from affected employers. Agree on balance
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The economy continues to be held back by COVID, more vaccination will reduce prevalence.
-see background information here |
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
The question does not say who is doing the mandating. Smart orgs (like UChicago)) will do this unprompted.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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