US

Vaccine Mandate

Following the Biden administration’s announcement of its intention to require that anyone at a firm with more than 100 employees or in the federal workforce be vaccinated or tested regularly, we invited our US panel to express their views on the likely economic impact of the vaccine mandate. We asked the experts whether they agree or disagree with the following statement, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

Mandating staff vaccinations and/or regular testing at big employers would promote a faster and stronger economic recovery.

Of our 43 US experts, 42 participated in this survey and they are unanimous in agreeing with the statement. Weighted by each expert’s confidence in their response, 74% of the panel strongly agree, 26% agree, and 0% are uncertain or disagree.

The experts are able to include short comments in their responses, and many took the opportunity to add nuance to their agreement or strong agreement with the statement. For example, Steven Kaplan at Chicago comments: ‘Agree. But given the evidence that having had Covid provides similar immunity, also should accept previous Covid infections’; while Daron Acemoglu at MIT notes: ‘But vaccines and testing are not perfect substitutes. Vaccination is absolutely necessary for reaching something resembling “herd immunity”.’

Others call for stronger action. Aaron Edlin at Berkeley says: ‘Mandates should extend much further and include eligible students in school and anyone in a public setting with limited exceptions.’ Robert Hall at Stanford states: ‘Universal vaccination mandate even better.’ And Judith Chevalier at Yale adds: ‘A massive increase in rapid testing usage would further help.’

Several panelists referred directly to the links between public health and the economy. Eric Maskin at Harvard observes: ‘Covid is now being transmitted primarily by unvaccinated people, and these cases cause substantial economic damage.’ And his colleague James Stock says: ‘The economy continues to be held back by Covid, more vaccination will reduce prevalence’, adding a link to his co-authored study of the economic benefits of Covid tests with a vaccine rollout.

Larry Samuelson at Yale explains: ‘Economic recovery requires solving the public health problem. Vaccines are our most powerful tool in bringing the virus under control.’ Jose Scheinkman at Columbia notes: ‘Largest benefit is decrease in hospitalization/death, but increased vaccination in low uptake groups/areas should help economic performance.’

A couple of experts comment on how big the economic impact of the vaccine mandate might be. Abhijit Banerjee at MIT says: ‘I think the direction is right but the magnitude is hard to tell.’ David Autor at MIT takes a view: ‘I agree that this will likely make a positive contribution to the recovery – but very likely a small positive contribution.’

Finally, two panelists outline the potential trade-offs in the mandate’s economic effects. Robert Shimer at Chicago suggests that: ‘Speeding the end of Covid promotes recovery, but this may drive some committed anti-vaxxers away from affected employers. Agree on balance.’ Darrell Duffie at Stanford concludes: ‘Growth downside: quits by refusers. Growth upsides: healthier workers (supply), reduced contagion and health costs. Upsides dominate.’

All comments made by the experts are in the full survey results.

Romesh Vaitilingam
@econromesh
September 2021

Mandating staff vaccinations and/or regular testing at big employers would promote a faster and stronger economic recovery.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
But vaccines and testing are not perfect substitutes. Vaccination is absolutely necessary for reaching something resembling "herd immunity".
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I agree that this will likely make a positive contribution to the recovery -- but very likely a _small_ positive contribution
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I think the direction is right but the magnitude is hard to tell
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
A massive increase in rapid testing usage would further help.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Growth downside: quits by refusers. Growth upsides: healthier workers (supply), reduced contagion and health costs. Upsides dominate.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Mandates should extend much further and include eligible students in school and anyone in a public setting with limited exceptions.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
How are we seriously still arguing about this?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Universal vaccination mandate even better
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
This is my view of the effect, not whether such a mandate takes sufficiently account of varying views.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Agree. But given the evidence that having had COVID provides similar immunity, also should accept previous COVID infections.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Covid is now being transmitted primarily by un-vaccinated people, and these cases cause substantial economic damage.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Economic recovery requires solving the public health problem. Vaccines are our most powerful tool in bringing the virus under control.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Largest benefit is decrease in hospitalization/death but increase vaccination in low uptake groups/areas should help economic performance.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Speeding the end of covid promotes recovery, but this may drive some committed anti-vaxxers away from affected employers. Agree on balance
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The economy continues to be held back by COVID, more vaccination will reduce prevalence.
-see background information here
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The question does not say who is doing the mandating. Smart orgs (like UChicago)) will do this unprompted.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History