Question A:
Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would substantially improve availability of the vaccines in developing countries.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
2%
0%
14%
33%
33%
14%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
18%
28%
35%
19%
Question B:
Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would have a negative impact on vaccine development efforts for future variants of SARS-CoV-2 or for the next pandemic.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
0%
2%
5%
23%
47%
19%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
3%
3%
20%
50%
24%
Question C:
Without an international agreement that facilitates vaccine trade, countries’ incentives to limit exports of vaccines and/or key production inputs are likely to prolong the adverse effects of the pandemic in advanced countries.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
2%
0%
5%
19%
56%
14%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
7%
13%
61%
19%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Relaxing ex post monopoly after invention helps users, esp. poor users. Sometimes IPR important for market entry but not likely in this case
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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With 10-12 vaccines, many w/strong commitments to license to anyone, other supply chain issues seem to be a stronger impediment.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But this does NOT mean that it is good policy, especially without qualifications.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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My "agree" does not imply that I think this is a good idea. But if the cost of an already developed product is cut, take-up will increase.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sharing know-how is also important.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is politics, not IPR: extremely stringent criteria for borrowing for vaccines designed to exclude Russian, India and Chinese vaccines
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Outside my area of expertise. I believe vaccines are currently sold to those countries at below full market prices.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is a large expert literature on this topic.I am not one of the experts so I would ask a few of them rather than give an amateur answer
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given the need for herd immunity globally, I suspect that vaccines will be available worldwide without this change.
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Firms need IP to recover R&D costs but the high prices should be applied only to sales in developed countries with others paying at most MC.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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see all the other roadblocks listed in question c, not clear whether this alone would move the dial
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Perhaps, but not sure it works better than subsidizing purchases or investments in capacity.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Removing all or for low-income markets? Yes for latter.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Vaccines are notoriously complex to manufacture and regulate, as evidence
from the COVID-19 pandemic has made clear. See ch 3 in PDF below.
-see background information here |
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There may be effective interventions less drastic than simply removing protection, but some intervention would enhance availability.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Initial increase may not be substantial given the many licensing agreements already in existence.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't know if shortages of know-how, production facilities, or critical inputs would prevent expansion of production.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure about "substantially" because the drug companies will (eventually) permit generics for the rest of the world.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure about "substantially", especially in relevant time frame. Need more than this, because even marginal cost pricing is too high.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Drug innovation respond to profits (see links). But there is plenty of profits from rich nations; those from LDCs won't to be decisive.
-see background information here |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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New equilibrium: If governments lift vaccineIP protections ex post, they should be prepared to pay for the next round of vaccines ex ante.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The answer depends on how this is done. It could be a relatively cheap buy out--the developers have made enough money already from the OECD.
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Details matter but a change in the rules that makes it harder for companies to recoup investments in variant development, etc. problematic
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends if in all countries or just low income countries.
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Negative indicates sign, no more. And again, everything is in how it is done.
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Compensation could limit or eliminate any negative impact.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Without any compensation for taking it away you mean?
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some economists have proposed to avoid this issue through government buyouts of IP rights.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Removing IP protection is not a method of internalizing externalities that comes out of economics (public goods) theory.We have smarter ways
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Look at Pfizer's share price since the start of the pandemic, even with success and current regime it has not gained that much
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Same point as above.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This vaccine received massive government support, and such support could ensure future development despite protection compromises.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unless governments can coordinate and institute appropriate prizes, which in the case of vaccines are probably superior to IP protection.
-see background information here |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends. Lucrative contracts to supply vaccines to rich countries with no impediments to sales in other countries could work very well.
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It all depends on when you do it. I am all for setting up prizes for vaccine and other drugs. We have to let them make some money.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Incentivizing pandemic-context vaccine development via expected monopoly profits from patent protection is insane. Public investment needed.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Global cooperation is key for a global pandemic. If half of the world does not vaccinate, new mutants will emerge and spread in the West too
-see background information here |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Low certainty here as details matter.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lots of ways of writing such an agreement, and not doing so is hardly a real possibility.
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Uncertain now how big a problem this is. Potentially big.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's too late for int. agreem. and it would not be enforceable anyway. By end of 2021 there will be enough production capacity for everyone
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This question seems to presuppose that individual countries have market power in the world market for vaccines, which is not obvious
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question is just too vague for me to answer. Details of trade agreements matter.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Risk aversion and own country preference would seem a big obstical.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increasing returns to scale imply that coordination and cooperation can be far more effective than individual national programs.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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far from my expertise, but this seems like an own goal. if the virus is alive in developing countries how does normality elsewhere prevail?
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See ch 10 by Bown and Bollyky in the Peterson Institute Briefing issued today, URL below. We need an international vaccine treaty.
-see background information here |
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Advanced countries are safe from the virus only when the entire world is safe.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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