Question A:
Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would lead to substantially less employment in the US steel industry than in the absence of such a deal.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
28%
3%
3%
40%
25%
3%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
64%
29%
2%
0%
Question B:
Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would cause no measurable damage to the American economy.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
28%
3%
3%
0%
10%
53%
5%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
0%
11%
72%
12%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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US Steel is a moribund enterprise. Absent Japanese investment, it will likely continue to whither on the vine--like Chrysler or Sears. Nippon Steel's investment might give it a new lease on life and hence preserve employment.
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The counterfactual here is tricky- the domestic acquirer, independent status?
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nippon may however agree to maintain us employment levels.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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i think impossible to answer without clarity on counterfactual-- would US Steel remain independent or be purchased by someone else (domestic or foreign)
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nippon does not have substantial production capacity in the US. This makes it easier for Nippon to supply customers and deploy its technology.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More likely to lead to more employment.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is not clear why the new owners would operate at a smaller scale then the current owners.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nippon has not shared its plans with me.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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