US

US Steel

Question A:

Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would lead to substantially less employment in the US steel industry than in the absence of such a deal.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would cause no measurable damage to the American economy.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
US Steel is a moribund enterprise. Absent Japanese investment, it will likely continue to whither on the vine--like Chrysler or Sears. Nippon Steel's investment might give it a new lease on life and hence preserve employment.
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The counterfactual here is tricky- the domestic acquirer, independent status?
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Nippon may however agree to maintain us employment levels.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
i think impossible to answer without clarity on counterfactual-- would US Steel remain independent or be purchased by someone else (domestic or foreign)
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nippon does not have substantial production capacity in the US. This makes it easier for Nippon to supply customers and deploy its technology.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
More likely to lead to more employment.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
It is not clear why the new owners would operate at a smaller scale then the current owners.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Nippon has not shared its plans with me.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
US Steel is in bad shape. It's failure would be bad for the US Economy. Japanese investment, modernization, and management would be strategically valuable.
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
This does not lead to monopolization of steel industry. Unclear why a merger between a Japanese and American firm would hurt US economy.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
More likely to be a positive.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hard to see why a change of ownership of one firm could do that much damage to the entire economy.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History