US

US Median Income

The 9% cumulative increase in real US median household income since 1980 substantially understates how much better off people in the median American household are now economically, compared with 35 years ago.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
But the same is true for the pre-1980 growth. So this number does NOT understate that growth of median income has declined after mid-1970s.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Over the 1980-2014 period CPI probably does not fully account for quality improvements or for the value of new goods (e.g., the smartphone.)
-see background information here
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I think it's more likely than not given secular improvements in healthcare, longevity, technology, and air quality.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
There are gains in health etc. not measured in earnings but also psychological costs of growing inequality and a sense of disappointment.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Have to factor in changes in transfers, changes in household size, changes in labor force participation and CPI bias.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Likely true, but it not hard to construct arguments that contradict it. For many groups, health is getting worse.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Other relevant factors would be: time spent commuting, increase in % of 25-53 employed, hours worked, hours connected to work email at home
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
"Understates" yes, "substantially" I revert to uncertain.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
so much of our day is spent doing things that didn't exist back then that it's hard to believe the #s fully account for new products
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
CPI bias is important even w that in mind, 9% seems a small gain over 35 years & i THINK median family is working many more hours
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Lots of real growth in the top deciles and the bottom deciles. Not so clear at the median.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Iphones weren't available then suggesting understatement. But both partners often work, which is stressful. This suggests overstatement.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Depends how "better off" defined. Technology (eg smartphones), medical services, lower crime, etc have increased quality of life broadly.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
No one I know would rather face the 1980 bundle of goods (at 1980 prices) than current bundle, at anywhere near the same incomes.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The rise in life expectancy alone is worth on the order of 1% per year.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Difficult question, but life expectancy is up from 74 to 79 years - seems like a substantial gain not reflected in real median income.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Due to measurement issues e.g. prices, family composition, measures of income, prob understates by >1% py. Add to that price quality bias.
-see background information here
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Yes, because it misses many innovations, but at the same time the upper end of the income distribution is extraordinarily better off.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Burkhauser et al. (2011) show faster growth in median post-tax, post-transfer size-adjusted household income including health ins. benefits.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The official indices and deflators undervalue quality change and new goods. A small annual bias makes a big difference over 30+ years.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
CPI has improved but is imperfect. Capital income matters, especially for retirees. Mean household size has shrunk from around 3.3 to 2.6.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Define substantial. Agree that CPI overstates inflation.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History