US

U.S. State Budgets

Question A:

By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
See the persuasive article by Robert Novy-Marx and Joshua Rauh in the Journal of Economic Perspectives in 2009.
-see background information here
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Not sure why they do that.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
The discounting is unrealistically high, so underfunding is understated. Pretty simple. The distortion is large, according to experts.
-see background information here
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This is a big problem with corporate pensions too.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Its outrageous that this is permitted. See Novy-Marx and Rauh's IGM funded research to see the massive degree of understatement.
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Novy-Marx and Rauh peg current state pension assets at $1.94 trillion, and liabilities at $5.17 trillion, a $3.23 trillion shortfall!
-see background information here
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
This is always and everywhere true.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
More so for the ones that are opposed to tax increases.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
The estimated shortfall magnitudes are large according to experts like Josh Rauh, and roughly double state indebtedness, adding $3 trillion.
-see background information here
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
duh
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
They can forget federal bailouts!
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Where legally possible I expect states will reneg on promised pension amounts
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Current path is unsustainable; the longer we wait the worse the eventual adjustment, but for OH and IL at least things already look bad.
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Why it is a terrible idea to shift the residual risk of Medicare costs to states, many of which are already in virtual default.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History