Question A:

Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Of course, software, design and services also matter. But networks are social media platforms' most valuable asset.
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
It takes years for these incumbency advantages to erode, but it happens! Think of MySpace, Friendster, and Facebook...
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Positive feedback from network effects help you take off, but they make it easier to spiral downhill. Easy come, easy go. If a better alternative draws customers despite the incumbent advantage as it grows it enjoys positive feedback and if twitter shrinks it has negative.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
That is, there is competition for the market more than competition in the market
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Many services create network externalities that hinder entry. Twitter is not unique in that regard. Also, other services have successfully entered -- TikTok and many others that an old man like me do not use.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Network externalities are especially important in social media, calling for new research and new regulation and policy tools.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
An advantage, yes, but no reason to expect it will substantially slow migration. MySpace fell to Facebook rapidly, and Facebook displaced other networks overseas rather quickly.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Network externalities slow migration initially but speed it after some point
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Is this a question about network externalities or a prediction of the future. Because status quo bias is also a big factor. People stick to (say) banks even after fraud convictions. Either way, twitter will be hard to topple.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
The network-nature of social media platforms means that there are myriad economic and social externalities, and there is no reason to think that either the platforms or users will internalize them.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I would say yes except that I have no idea what workable legislation would look like
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
any possible regulation should not be specific to Twitter and requires public discussion about freedom of speech.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
You would think that losing $40n of your own money would encourage someone to figure it out on their own
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
At a minimum the same rules as for newspapers.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
I see no reason why content regulation on Twitter should exceed regulation of newspapers and magazines, or regulation of what material is sent via US Mail. Twitter is just a cheaper way of communication. Privacy protections are necessary.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Depends on what the regulation would be!
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
This would be legally and politically divisive in the extreme. Perhaps a consensus would form in the future but impossible now.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This is the case for social media more generally.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I agree reluctantly, because the status quo is so unsatisfactory, but I don't know what exact form of regulation can be relied upon to do more good than harm. And the exact form of regulatio is what matters.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The government should not regulate content on Twitter any more than it should regulate the content of the NYTimes or Fox News. Personal data protection should not be different at Twitter than at other platforms.
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
I don’t see how government regulation can work on content. How would that regulation have worked during the Trump administration? What about cable news? Hard problem. Is there a successful model we can learn from? Not an expert.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History