Trade Within Europe

Question A:

Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Aghion
Philippe Aghion
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Free trade increases the efficiency of the economy. Although there significant distributional issues, the average person is better off.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
It would be hard to argue it has been worse for the average western citizen
Baldwin
Richard Baldwin
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Author of leading textbook on Econ of European integration
-see background information here
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Europe, including the UK, is a highly integrated economic region. Across a whole set of services, manufacturing and agricultural products.
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Although there is no counter-factual, many studies suggest that European integration has increased average GDP per capita.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Strongly Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
In spite of some costs due to the common agricultural policy, the benefits of specialization have allowed a more efficient allocation
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Access to a larger variety of goods and services, at lower prices. A higher standard of living overall.
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
the questions asks about movements WITHIN Europe: here there is no doubt
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
A body of empirical evidence and theory suggests gains from European integration.
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Hellwig
Martin Hellwig
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
But not uniform increases: stronger in Eastern Europe.
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Citizens, not workers or consumers are evaluated. Gains from trade have probably increased in terms of averaging across Europeans.
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
I am not a trade economist by specialization, which explains why I selected somewhat limited confidence.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Especially in the long run.
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Greater integration has led to classical gains from trade through specialization, as well as new gains from exploiting supply chains
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
I'd have chosen "meaningless" if I could have, since "average citizen" is a dangerous fiction. Intra-EU trade has clearly increased GDP
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
This statements is not only consistent with what economic theory predicts, but also with substantial evidence from several studies.
-see background information here
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Trade allows more specialization and this increases efficiency so there is more variety of goods available at lower cost
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
For consumers, there has been an astonishing increase in variety for all goods and a significant reduction in the real prices of durables.
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Standard economic theory arguments in favour of free trade seem to apply fairly well within Europe.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Numerous studies, especially of the impact of single market
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I agree but evidence on productivity suggests that the gains from this kind of liberalisation have been smaller than anticipated.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Much evidence on more competition, economies of scale and of scope.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Competition, lower prices, more innovation

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Aghion
Philippe Aghion
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Some workers are made worse off but as consumers they are probably better off.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
The sentiment of many low-skilled workers is that they might have been made worse off. This is probably true for some but not clear how many
Baldwin
Richard Baldwin
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
A set of changes including rules on union bargaining and skill-biased tech change that have put downward pressure on low skilled male wages.
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
In most Western EU countries, inequalities of disposable income have not increased at least up to the crisis.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
but appropriate training and labour market policies have the overall impact of free trade positive for almost everyone in some countries
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
European competition has led to a reduction in low skilled jobs that combined with a larger supply coming from low income countries
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Possibly, and at least in the short run, due to the reallocation of manufacturing activities in low wage new EU members.
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
again the question is about trade within europe, thus no doubts
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Some low-skilled workers have undoubtedly been made worse off, but we do not know if many have, any my sense is that it is not many.
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
I think competition to Asia may have had this effect but not openness within Europe, except perhaps the enlargement to the eastern European
Hellwig
Martin Hellwig
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Some yes; many no. But this is measuring economic wellbeing. Loss of identity, community, social certainties would be an offset.
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Gains from trade have increased the extent to which redistribution via the social security system can be effective.
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
I think mist low-wage competition is from outside of Europe. Of course some always lose from trade. But many low-skilled workers gain too.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Benefit from lower prices but neg. employment effects; net effect depends on horizon & transfers. Bigger effect for them is technology
-see background information here
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
It is not true that many low-skilled workers have lost out, especially considering improved quality and lower prices; but some have lost
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Intra-EU trade has hurt some via outsourcing to Eastern Europe but not huge numbers I guess -- extra-EU trade more the problem here.
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Intra-EU trade expanded employment opportunities. Some displacement of low-skill workers occurred, but mostly due to non-EU imports.
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Trade within western Europe is mostly intra-industry trade
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
it has made some western workers worse off but not many because of competition from lower-cost eastern nations
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Free movement of goods and (not all) services has benefited low-skilled as well as high-skilled; migration may have harmed some low-skilled.
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Some low-skilled workers worse off because of job outsourcing. Compensations to losers not adequate. But there are also gains to consumers
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Overall income growth is greater; no obvious differential impact by skill (all relatively wealthy countries). Our Brexit analysis summarises
-see background information here
-see background information here
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
hugely heterogenous - strongly positive for Germany etc., probably a small minus in places with a weaker manufacturing base
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Eastern European immigration has had limited effects on wages in Western Europe. Trade liberalisation with non-EU areas more important.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Usual RIcardian redistribution as many firms have closed down. Many people recovered but some did not.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
At best true for very specific sectors of labor market (e.g., construction).