US

Trade Deals

Refusing to liberalize trade unless partner countries adopt new labor or environmental rules is a bad policy, because even if the new standards would reduce distortions on some dimensions, such a policy involves threatening to maintain large distortions in the form of restricted trade.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Not clear that increasing carbon-intensive imports from, say, China would be a step closer to a less distorted allocation.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
When countries adopt beggar-thy-neighbor trade/currency policies, bilateral trade agreements are a powerful tool for disciplining behavior
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Measuring the social cost of the environmental distortion and the social cost of the trade distortion is hard to do definitively.
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Theory is clear that we cannot make such statements outside of the first best.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I see the point, but it seems impossible not to want to reserve judgment on a case by case basis.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Such a broad proclamation seems overstated. Relatedly, are the trade restraints on Iran bad on balance because of distortions?
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Theory of the Second Best suggests strongly that "it depends."
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Depends on how big the distortion is in the status quo
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Yes but new research sez benefits of trade smaller than old view Greenhouse gases impt exception b/c global impact of climate change.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Policymakers seem to think that granting the right to export to the US is a valuable privilege that comes at some cost to the US.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
If there a true distortion (e.g. environmental) that needs correction, it should be addressed directly, not through distorting trade.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
These arguments are often used by protectionists who use these issues to block freer trade.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
OK to threaten it, but losing a deal over this would be bad policy; this reasoning seems to make it much harder to reach deals.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Income growth and technology transfer through free trade could actually improve environmental and labor standards.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
If the labor or environmental practices are bad enough, they should have primacy.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
In many, perhaps most cases I would agree, but I don't see how one can argue that the trade distortion is always more important.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
This question is to broad/vague to be meaningful. Specific instances would probably lead to different answers.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Poor question. Trade deals are negotiated. The word "refusing" is an odd choice.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History