US

Trade and Toughness

An important reason why many workers in Michigan and Ohio have lost jobs in recent years is because US presidential administrations over the past 30 years have not been tough enough in trade negotiations.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
US trade with China caused large emp. declines. But the main mitigating policy should be worker adjustment programs, not trade negotiations.
-see background information here
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Trade has hurt blue collar workers in manufacturing in Mich, Ohio and elsewhere. But trade negotiations must balance competing interests.
-see background information here
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Growing competition from China and Mexico has cost many manufacturing jobs in Ohio and Michigan. Weak negotiations are not the cause.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The phrasing implies that any reduction in jobs is bad. Some shifts in employment are valuable (e.g., fewer sweatshop jobs in the US).
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
"Tough enough" is not meaningful. More restrictive US trade policy toward autos would have benefited autoworkers while hurting consumers.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
V likely that any trade effect is from greater competitiveness of China/India/etc rather than tariffs. & recession is big cause of job loss
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Job losses occur because of automation, energy prices, tastes, as well as trade. A tougher policy could have been worse not better.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
This question is a good but complicated one. I would like to be able to answer but a cursory explanation cannot do justice to the issue.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Many jobs went to the US South. Increases in productivity reduced jobs. New jobs were created due to access to foreign labor.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Technology, globalization, perhaps, unionization are the primary source of lost jobs in Michigan and Ohio. Same is true in Western Europe
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Lots of caveats re the benefits of trade, but failure to bargain hard enough is NOT very relevant. We are protectionist in some cases too
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
"Enough" wrongly implies that policy should have been more protectionist. But freer trade did increase gross job destruction.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Big drop in manu jobs in 2000s, but prob not due to trade deals.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Toughness in trade negotiations is considerably less important than factors such as skill-biased technical change in manufacturing.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Trade matters for job loss, but toughness in trade negotiations has a small effect on trade.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
There is nothing in economics or psychology that suggests that being "tougher" gets more. See ultimatum game.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History