An important reason why many workers in Michigan and Ohio have lost jobs in recent years is because US presidential administrations over the past 30 years have not been tough enough in trade negotiations.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
US trade with China caused large emp. declines. But the main mitigating policy should be worker adjustment programs, not trade negotiations.
-see background information here |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Trade has hurt blue collar workers in manufacturing in Mich, Ohio and elsewhere. But trade negotiations must balance competing interests.
-see background information here |
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Growing competition from China and Mexico has cost many manufacturing jobs in Ohio and Michigan. Weak negotiations are not the cause.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The phrasing implies that any reduction in jobs is bad. Some shifts in employment are valuable (e.g., fewer sweatshop jobs in the US).
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
"Tough enough" is not meaningful. More restrictive US trade policy toward autos would have benefited autoworkers while hurting consumers.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
V likely that any trade effect is from greater competitiveness of China/India/etc rather than tariffs. & recession is big cause of job loss
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Job losses occur because of automation, energy prices, tastes, as well as trade. A tougher policy could have been worse not better.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
This question is a good but complicated one. I would like to be able to answer but a cursory explanation cannot do justice to the issue.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Many jobs went to the US South. Increases in productivity reduced jobs. New jobs were created due to access to foreign labor.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Technology, globalization, perhaps, unionization are the primary source of lost jobs in Michigan and Ohio. Same is true in Western Europe
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Lots of caveats re the benefits of trade, but failure to bargain hard enough is NOT very relevant. We are protectionist in some cases too
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
"Enough" wrongly implies that policy should have been more protectionist. But freer trade did increase gross job destruction.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Big drop in manu jobs in 2000s, but prob not due to trade deals.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Toughness in trade negotiations is considerably less important than factors such as skill-biased technical change in manufacturing.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Trade matters for job loss, but toughness in trade negotiations has a small effect on trade.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is nothing in economics or psychology that suggests that being "tougher" gets more. See ultimatum game.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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