Question A:
The current US federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. States can choose whether to have a higher minimum - and many do.
A federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would lower employment for low-wage workers in many states.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
A federal minimum wage that is pegged to state and/or local conditions such as the cost of living would be preferable to the current arrangements that give states a role in setting the policy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Evidence is that small increases in min. wage (starting from US lows) don't have large disemployment effects. Don't know what $15 will do
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The weight of the evidence does not support large job loss. But I'm above extra nervous about setting min $15/hr during the pandemic.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The question seems incomplete. Suppose wages double and employment goes down by 1%. Is that a yes or a no? Also over what time horizon?
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The question says "lower employment" rather than "substantially lower". No extant study allows us to rule out some employment effects.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Many" is a tough word. Perhaps many states but for many fewer people.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Research has shown modest min. wage increases do not increase unemployment. But going from $6 to $15 in the current situation is not modest.
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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uncertain esp about 'many states' bc it is an out of sample increase relative to existing studies & sector under duress with covid fallout
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not well worded - I would say DISAGREE if it were "would not reduce employment substantially".
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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$15 per hour is a high wage in a number of states. Marginal product is less than $15 per hour for many.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think so, but variable effort could mitigate the negative effect.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure state comparisons make sense - in CA, Bay Area impact might be minimal, and maybe not so in rural areas.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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An increase to $15/hour is a big jump, and I'm not sure we have the data to know what the effect on employment would be.
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Evidence on employment effects of minimum wages is inconclusive, and the employment losses may well be small.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Such a big change would surely have some effect -- not clear it would be large, though.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Demand for labor is presumably downward sloping, but the question does not ask anything about magnitudes.
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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$15 is above the current median hourly wage in several states and close to it in many more. This will dramatically change those economies
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The literature suggests minimal effects on employment.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Perhaps in some of the lowest-wage states, but the evidence is that for most states there would be little effect on employment.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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$15 min wage would have very different effects in MA than in AL. But a cost of living adjustment should be legislated at the federal level
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Although states can & do calibrate upward, the federal min is valuable. Approx 20 states simply adhere to federal lower bound.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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So much depends on precise design.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Minimum likely better than a maximum
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Otherwise we end up with a race to the bottom. But should be paired with federal standards on safety, working conditions, etc.
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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design details would matter a lot. quite some appeal to a federal floor that is a function of state/local conditions & pegged to inflation
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to guess who would do more harm, feds or states.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If there is a federal minimum, should be pegged to local conditions like cost-of-living. Seems no logic to forbidding state & local role...
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The definition of "local" is critical. State-level averages ignore important variations. MSA and county level averages would be better.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Would be inclined to let states decide. If they decide well, labor and employers will come. If they decide badly, the states will decline.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it depends on how much variance would be built in and how the average level were set.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Indexing is appealing on the pure economics, but I would want to know more about the complexity and implementation.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure what the question is. Making the federal wage depend on local conditions sounds good, but why not let states top that if they want?
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Fed minimum preferably should be indexed to local conditions. Does not imply (as the question seems to) that states can have no role.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tailoring the minimum wage to local conditions would help ameliorate employment effects.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A federal minimum wage pegged to state conditions should serve as a floor to a state's minimum wage.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Preferable" reflects my preferences, of course, & my belief that in some states the government is hostile to low income workers of color.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A State can set a higher minimum than the federal minimum rate for that State.
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is value to allowing localities to tailor policies to local preferences. It is hard to see the value of national coordination here
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to say without knowing the details. It is hard to write legislation that is fine-tuned.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm not very confident about how the politics would work.
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