Question A:
Given the social and regulatory pressures to keep prices down for drugs and vaccines to treat Covid-19, the financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to invest in such products are below the value of the investment to society.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
0%
2%
9%
23%
35%
26%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
3%
8%
19%
36%
34%
Question B:
Government commitments to pay developers and manufacturers above average costs for an effective vaccine or drug treatments for Covid-19 would accelerate production.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
0%
0%
2%
12%
65%
16%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
2%
11%
67%
20%
Question C:
Given the positive externalities from vaccination, an effective Covid-19 vaccine should be mandatory for every US resident (except those with health exceptions, such as infants and people with compromised immunity) with the cost covered by the federal government.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
0%
0%
5%
14%
44%
33%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
5%
11%
41%
44%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Social incentives are high.Unclear how much more productive vaccine research can be done with more incentive. But FDA can be improved hugely
|
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is also direct federal financial support for vaccine development.
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Would not rule out large profits for suppliers under Trump admin. Also, a large 'halo' effect for first to market.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think whichever group wins this competition will collect lots of rents--Nobel prizes, reputation gains etc
|
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There will be incredible goodwill for doing so, which will translate into higher prices for other drugs.
|
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The social value of a vaccine is many trillions of dollars. The value to the inventor is likely billions
|
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Several companies are researching vaccines and treatments, and trials are already under way. Incentives do not seem to be the problem
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Actually, the incentives are probably weak even without the special limitation of pricing of coronavirus-related meds.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pharma does not capture all the consumer benefits, which leads to underinvestment. But the race to be first can cause overinvestment.
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||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Public reaction and firm reputation could be an important incentive to offset financial incentive.
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||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Drug companies are good at capturing rents, including those created by government-funded research, despite pressure to keep prices low.
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||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This justifies the investment done by the US and other governments on promising SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.
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||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably right, but it is not clear how effective those pressures will be.
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||||
 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Also because innovators never capture the full return to their innovation
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Firms are investing hoping for some payday and regulatory good will but know they can't charge what a cure or vaccine would be worth.
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Market failure is profound. Especially for vaccines, externalities are paramount. Underinvestment is pervasive.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Unclear gains, but huge windfall for pharmaceutical companies.
|
||||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would say "strongly agree" but there are already >100 vaccines under development, so perhaps incentives are sufficient.
|
||||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The question says "above average cost" and I think a per unit payment incentive is not necessarily the right one.
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||||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, but merely "above average cost" does not suggest enough incentive.
|
||||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pay more, get more. Pay much more, get much more.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Incentives do not seem to be the bottleneck in this case.
|
||||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sure, supply functions slope upward.
|
||||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Public reaction and firm reputation could be important incentive off-setting direct financial rewards.
|
||||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is difficult to set that payment until we know what the average cost will be. Should combine these payments with rewards to the first one
|
||||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Governments subsidizing promising developers and manufacturers but this could bring in projects that look less viable.
|
||||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
With high "first-pill" costs, average cost is not a good measure. In general, financial incentives would increase effort.
|
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I like the idea of prizes for this kind of innovation.
|
||||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Implementation is a challenge, but feasibility has been demonstrated.
-see background information here |
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Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Of course!
|
||||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The vaccine should be subsidized. Schools and other institutions should require vaccines. A universal requirement is not realistic in US.
|
||||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Vaccination is a public good -- but so is wearing a mask, and that's not going so well...
|
||||
|
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Providing the vaccine up to the point of herd immunity is important. Supplying the vaccine to the developing world is also important.
|
||||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Seems an obvious case tradeoff of an individual freedom in favor of collective health security.
|
||||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I strongly support vaccination and understand the externality argument; but why not handle like other vaccinations?
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The upper 50 percent of the pop could pay themselves for their mandatory vacs.
|
||||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I can see the benefits. But maybe urging people to get it and making it affordable would internalize enough of the externalities.
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
An effective vaccine can have long-term adverse consequences. Good treatments would make vaccine less important. Lots of uncertainty.
|
||||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I think those who are well-off should pay something.
|
||||
|
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Although I might agree, there are too many uncertainties underlying this question to do so.
|
||||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I would have difficulty believing in the safety of any vaccine the current US government endorses until it has a long positive track record.
|
||||
|
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Vaccination has tremendous positive externalities and hence constitutes a powerful case for market intervention.
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Exceptions should be narrow and only based on health risks.
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Also visitors. Not clear that this is constitutional, though.
|
||||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I agree with the concept, but what is the punishment for refusing to be vaccinated? Perhaps pay people to get vaccinated.
|
||||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Aside from any libertarian concerns I worry that any vaccine produced soon would be insufficiently tested. Do we trust Trump to test it?
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Probably. But one could imagine an effective but risky or costly vaccine that would make the case more difficult.
|
||||
