The European Green Deal

Question A:

The European Union goal of reaching net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 will be a major drag on economic growth.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Carbon taxes are a better way to implement climate policy than cap-and-trade.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

A carbon border tax targeting imports from non-EU countries with less strict climate policies is likely to harm developing economies.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
There are a lot of opportunities building new businesses from the climate change initiative. The time horizon is long enough for it to be ok
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
It's certainly would be costly, but I don't know what is meant by "major drag on economic growth"
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Carbon taxes or caps are likely to lead to stranded assets, but alsohigh investment in new technologies. May come with higher tfp as well.
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Depends on how the policy is carried out. The overall drag on growth may be limited but large uncertainty. Counterfactual is also unclear.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
A well crafted and timed transition strategy will create significant economic opportunities.
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Creative destruction is involved here. It is never a major drag on growth, but leads losers and winners
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The need for new technologies may substitute for the direct cost. Still, it may be the case that other countries get the benefits
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Admittedly it could be if handled badly; among other things, depends heavily on rest of world’s policies.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
The policy will require significant public and private investments, allowing for knock-on effects that are likely to spur growth.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Likely a drag but hard to know how large. Goals have consequences for competitiveness & require large investments.
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Zero emissions can be achieved in many ways - innovation, change in structure of tax without increases, are neutral or enhance growth.
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Growth may be lower; but could be lower still if environmental degradation proceeds unchecked. Markets undevalue environmental quality
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
It will be a drag on brown growth but a boost for green growth.
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Switching to lower or zero emissions will create jobs that will offset any negative effects on GDP
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
This all depends how we get there. If major EU coordinated investments, R&D and leadership role, costs will be mitigated
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
My 2016 JPE paper with Aghion et al showed how carbon taxes (and R&D policies) could direct technical change towards cleaner innovation
-see background information here
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
All depends on how it is implemented. With a credible pathway it could boost public and private investment while reallocating capital.
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
It will a drag, but major? We don't yet know what policies will be chosen so we can't guess about their impact.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
This is an interesting question. I do not know the research in this area well.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The late Marty Weitzman taught us that the theoretical answer is ambiguous; but taxes are more transparent and less prone to rent-seeking
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Weitzman discussion of prices versus quantities. Cap and trade more manipulable, but achieving given quantity for sure may be needed.
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
In theory cap-and-trade is attractive but in practice it fails to give a long-term perspective on carbon prices.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
I tend to agree but reaching the goal while taking political constraints into account requires being pragmatic
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
In absence of uncertainty both are equivalent. Cap and trade creates too much cost uncertainty for the investors in new technologies
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
This about the uncertainty of the economic consequences. The carbon tax allows quantity to adjust, C&T lets price adjust. We don't know...
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
prices are better than caps at producing the right effects
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
On balance this seems a cleaner approach less likely to be hijacked by special interest lobbying.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
The big difference is the "cap" - without it, taxes may distort investment and consumption, but will not necessarily reduce emissions.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Cap-and-trade allows to better control total amount of emissions. Also, in Europe carbon taxes pose greater political economy problems
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Tax has some advantages (link), but no clear dominance. Cap&trade may be politically easier to implement. Either one better than status quo.
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Both are good alternatives to command-and-control, incentivizing concern for environmental quality. The choice between them is contingent
-see background information here
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Both are needed. If I had to choose one only I would choose taxes
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Best way is predictably rising carbon price path with redistribution of carbon dividend and accompanying investments
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Either can be effective depending on the enforcement environment and industry structure within a country.
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Carbon tax does the right thing (if set on a correct rising schedule) and brings money. Cap and trade can be manipulated.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
In the short run there may be negative effects unless there is a long lead in time. In the long run it will help climate change.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
It is hard to imagine that the incidence of the border tax would be such that only importing countries bear the cost
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Afraid that this may be right. May justify helping them through other channels.
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Developing countries will be major losers of climate change. They may in fact negotiate lump-sum transfers.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Yes in the absence of compensating financial mechanisms that should be put in place to avoid that outcome.
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Time horizon? Potential for this type of policy being used as a smokescreen for protectionist goals?
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
The question leaves open whether or not the border tax is accompanied by higher levies for CO2 production within borders.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Might harm their exports in short run, but lead to welfare gains in long run due to incentives to adopt cleaner technology
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
It hurts exports of some countries with high carbon use in production but could complement policies in EU if we lack global solution.
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Provided border taxes are not merely protectionist, they are likely to encourage better environmental policies in developing countries
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I am assuming that there is no other form of compensation to low-income countries.
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Yes, but it will save the planet, so it is necessary. Eventually they will switch production techniques anyway
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Depends on accompanying policies: technological transfers and aid to mitigate costs could help a lot.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Short term: Increases costs and investments in less polluting technologies. Longer term: These countries are at risk from climate change
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It will hurt countries that do not adopt climate change policies, whether rich or poor. It has good incentives property.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History