US

The Dollar

Because of the many special and unique roles that the dollar plays in global commerce, US citizens are substantially better off than they otherwise would be.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Seigniorage is not trivial. The perceived safety and desirability US assets is unlikely to be unrelated to this role of the dollar.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer
1
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer
1
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Research shows a steady global demand for dollar debt issues, which lowers normal borrowing costs, and also a flight-to-safety benefit.
-see background information here
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Had to swallow hard over the "substantially." See url below for details.
-see background information here
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Not a good question. Not clear what "substantially " means. Sign is probably positive, but also probably small.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
The advantage is that the gov and business can borrow short-term at slightly lower rates. Does not rise to the level of "substantial".
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The U.S. government pays its debts and maintains low inflation. This is good for Americans. Sometimes a high dollar reduces exports,however.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
I mildly agree with this statement, but the word "substantially" in "substantially better off" is not supported by evidence.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
rarely mentioned example, foreign global banks start each day structurally short of dollar funding, US banks don't + Fed can help US banks
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Probably better off, but not substantially (e.g., seigniorage is on the order of 0.1% of annual GDP).
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer
1
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The faith n the US economy that drives the central role of the dollar in the international economy if one of our great assets.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
US citizens enjoy some net benefits from the dollar status, but these benefits are not likely to be substantial.
-see background information here
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Currencies seem less relevant than they used to be. But uninformed.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Seigniorage is great, but it's small potatoes. US may have more monetary policy freedom. "Substantial" may be overstatement.