US

The Dollar

Because of the many special and unique roles that the dollar plays in global commerce, US citizens are substantially better off than they otherwise would be.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
5%
0%
12%
14%
44%
19%

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
14%
11%
45%
28%
Participant
University
Vote
Confidence
Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Seigniorage is not trivial. The perceived safety and desirability US assets is unlikely to be unrelated to this role of the dollar.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer
1
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer
1
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Research shows a steady global demand for dollar debt issues, which lowers normal borrowing costs, and also a flight-to-safety benefit.
-see background information here
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Had to swallow hard over the "substantially." See url below for details.
-see background information here
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Not a good question. Not clear what "substantially " means. Sign is probably positive, but also probably small.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
The advantage is that the gov and business can borrow short-term at slightly lower rates. Does not rise to the level of "substantial".
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The U.S. government pays its debts and maintains low inflation. This is good for Americans. Sometimes a high dollar reduces exports,however.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
I mildly agree with this statement, but the word "substantially" in "substantially better off" is not supported by evidence.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
rarely mentioned example, foreign global banks start each day structurally short of dollar funding, US banks don't + Fed can help US banks
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Probably better off, but not substantially (e.g., seigniorage is on the order of 0.1% of annual GDP).
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer
1
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The faith n the US economy that drives the central role of the dollar in the international economy if one of our great assets.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
US citizens enjoy some net benefits from the dollar status, but these benefits are not likely to be substantial.
-see background information here
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Currencies seem less relevant than they used to be. But uninformed.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Seigniorage is great, but it's small potatoes. US may have more monetary policy freedom. "Substantial" may be overstatement.