Because of the many special and unique roles that the dollar plays in global commerce, US citizens are substantially better off than they otherwise would be.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
5%
0%
12%
14%
44%
19%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
14%
11%
45%
28%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Seigniorage is not trivial. The perceived safety and desirability US assets is unlikely to be unrelated to this role of the dollar.
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![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Research shows a steady global demand for dollar debt issues, which lowers normal borrowing costs, and also a flight-to-safety benefit.
-see background information here |
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Had to swallow hard over the "substantially." See url below for details.
-see background information here |
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not a good question. Not clear what "substantially " means. Sign is probably positive, but also probably small.
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The advantage is that the gov and business can borrow short-term at slightly lower rates. Does not rise to the level of "substantial".
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The U.S. government pays its debts and maintains low inflation. This is good for Americans. Sometimes a high dollar reduces exports,however.
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
I mildly agree with this statement, but the word "substantially" in "substantially better off" is not supported by evidence.
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
rarely mentioned example, foreign global banks start each day structurally short of dollar funding, US banks don't + Fed can help US banks
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Probably better off, but not substantially (e.g., seigniorage is on the order of 0.1% of annual GDP).
-see background information here |
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![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
The faith n the US economy that drives the central role of the dollar in the international economy if one of our great assets.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
US citizens enjoy some net benefits from the dollar status, but these benefits are not likely to be substantial.
-see background information here |
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Currencies seem less relevant than they used to be. But uninformed.
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
Seigniorage is great, but it's small potatoes. US may have more monetary policy freedom. "Substantial" may be overstatement.
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