Question A:
Even if tests for Covid-19 are being rationed, there is an urgent need for some random testing to establish baseline levels of the virus to inform any decisions about ending lockdowns.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
0%
0%
5%
7%
25%
59%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
4%
3%
27%
66%
Question B:
Required elements for an economic ‘restart’ after lockdowns include a massive increase in testing capacity (for infections and antibodies) along with a coherent strategy for preventing new outbreaks and reintroducing low-risk/no-risk individuals into public activities.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
0%
0%
0%
2%
23%
70%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
0%
21%
78%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There must be smarter ways to correct for the bias than pure random testing and not using limited resources to people who need it most.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We need to make sure we can test symptomatic people.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Population testing is the point. We should, ideally, test everyone. Random is not really the point.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Testing could help us understand prevalence and mortality risk, both overall and by age and condition
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, important. But we need to get out of this shortage of tests first, of course.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tricky subject. We need one survey of a few thousand people with repeated testing and clinical observation, to clear up a lot of mysteries.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Foremost we need anti-body testing to judge the path of the pandemic.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is common sense.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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seems to be one area where the economists and some epidemiologists disagree -- I think we are right....
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is one of the most important holes in current policy. Absolutely critical. Some firms, hospitals can do while waiting for gov.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lockdowns should be ended scientifically rather than blindly; to do so we must know the state of the population, which requires testing.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not while asymptomatic health workers treating covid-19 patients cannot be tested.
-see background information here |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is mainly an epidemiology question. I expect testing should be for antibodies as well as the virus.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antibody testing on a random sample of the population would also be very useful.
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See the link and my forthcoming VoxEU piece
-see background information here |
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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How to define urgent. More important than testing workers? Make it important and I am all in.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The lack of reliable information on the distribution of the virus makes decision-making riskier.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Certifying people as recovered would be extremely helpful as Aaron Edlin and Bryce Nesbitt argue in STATnews, First Opinion
-see background information here |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Do you want people to get out of their pajamas and back to work? Then we NEED TO DO MORE TESTS.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We need a coherent policy that adapts policy to test results.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Asian experience shows this is a viable, hopefully sustainable path. Aiming for herd-immunity always was a much riskier strategy.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See URL below for some uncommonly serious thinking about this issue.
-see background information here |
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Would also be very helpful to have treatments that can be administered when symptoms first appear that reduce the odds of becoming critical.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Garber-Romer op-ed in the NYT last week lays out the case for doing this quite well
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is not macro policy, this is good public health policy. Orders of magnitude smaller than stimulus needs.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Restarting too early risks a viral resurgence; too late entails extra cost. Careful planning is required to strike the right balance.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is clearly a need for testing, not just capacity, as well as a way for low/no risk individuals to credibly identify themselves.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The devil is in the details
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The only caveat is if we already have a high infection rate (low death rate), then such measures should target the most at risk eg elderly.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Here my gripe is with “required”. Important yes but would I hold up restart if cases are low but tests are still rationed? No.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Required" may be too strong. A vaccine or treatment could substitute for testing. But most likely, a massive increase in testing needed.
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