Tesla

Tesla shareholders are likely to benefit substantially from the decision by the Delaware Court of Chancery to void Elon Musk's $56 billion remuneration package.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Campbell
John Campbell
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
It's highly uncertain whether Tesla shareholders will benefit, but the shareholders of other tech companies may benefit from the signal the decision sends about acceptable compensation policies.
Cochrane
John Cochrane
Hoover Institution Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Tesla's stratospheric stock value depends on the belief that Musk will deliver magic, not selling cars. The package was not cash today, but options granted before stock rose, reward for performance. Denying ex ante maybe, but ex post welching on deals is not good.
Cornelli
Francesca Cornelli
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Diamond
Douglas Diamond
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Du
Wenxin Du
HBS
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Tesla stock down 2% in the after hour trading following the news, which suggests that a cut in executive pay is not necessarily good news for equity holders.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The option grant was designed to induce Musk to drive the market value of Tesla equity to a much higher level. Now that he (arguably) has done that, the shareholders (other than Musk) are being given a windfall gain by voiding the options.
Eberly
Janice Eberly
Northwestern Kellogg
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fama
Eugene Fama
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
The number seems large, but I don't know how one can tell if it is too large.
Gabaix
Xavier Gabaix
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goldstein
Itay Goldstein
UPenn Wharton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Graham
John Graham
Duke Fuqua
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Harvey
Campbell R. Harvey
Duke Fuqua
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
A 2% drop in the stock price doesn't seem like a big deal - so not "substantial". What is more interesting is Tesla potentially moving incorporation to Texas. Currently, Delaware has near monopoly over corporate registrations. Competition is on the way.
Hirshleifer
David Hirshleifer
USC Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hong
Harrison Hong
Columbia
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Governance at Tesla seems problematic.
Jiang
Wei Jiang
Emory Goizueta
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Tesla shareholders voted in favor in 2018. Stock dropped when opinion was announced indicating a loss of value. Will be a distraction if not value destroyer going forward.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Koijen
Ralph Koijen
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Kuhnen
Camelia Kuhnen
UNC Kenan-Flagler
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Lo
Andrew Lo
MIT Sloan Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Lowry
Michelle Lowry
Drexel LeBow
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
The greatest potential benefit to shareholders would be if this caused Tesla to improve its overall corporate governance. However, at this point that does not seem likely.
Ludvigson
Sydney Ludvigson
NYU
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Maggiori
Matteo Maggiori
Stanford GSB
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Matvos
Gregor Matvos
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Moskowitz
Tobias Moskowitz
Yale School of Management
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
There's the direct effect of the renumeration, but then there's the indirect effect of the signal from the event. Not clear what the net effect will be.
Nagel
Stefan Nagel
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Even if the process of awarding the pay package was flawed, as the court seems to have argued, this does not mean that the award was in conflict with the interests shareholders. The stock price also didn't move much, so likely a non-event for shareholder value.
Parker
Jonathan Parker
MIT Sloan
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
The Delaware court, with more information than us, voided the pay based on existing protections for minority investors against conflicted boards & deceptive disclosures, helping investors in Tesla (& all US stocks). Mature Tesla may be better without Musk but that is irrelevant.
Parlour
Christine Parlour
Berkeley Haas
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Absence a friction, courts intervening into market outcomes tend to make people worse off.
Philippon
Thomas Philippon
NYU Stern
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Puri
Manju Puri
Duke Fuqua Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Roberts
Michael R. Roberts
UPenn Wharton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Sapienza
Paola Sapienza
Northwestern Kellogg
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
This corresponds to 9.5% of stock market capitalization, but more importantly, the court has pointed the finger to board members who are too close to management, highlighting conflict of interest. I think this is a useful warning
Seru
Amit Seru
Stanford GSB
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Stambaugh
Robert Stambaugh
UPenn Wharton
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Judging by Tesla's stock-price reaction to the decision (down slightly), stockholders do not perceive a benefit. I would not argue otherwise.
Starks
Laura Starks
UT Austin McCombs
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Stein
Jeremy Stein
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Stroebel
Johannes Stroebel
NYU Stern
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Maybe some of the incentive effects (to the extent there are any) have happened already.
Sufi
Amir Sufi
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Titman
Sheridan Titman
UT Austin McCombs
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Van Nieuwerburgh
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Columbia Business School
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Redistribution from entrenched shareholder to diffuse shareholders. signals better corporate governance. Reduce impact of erratic behavior of one large shareholder on entire company.
Whited
Toni Whited
UMich Ross School
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History