Long run fiscal sustainability in the US will require some combination of cuts in currently promised Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
21%
5%
0%
2%
17%
43%
12%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
3%
15%
57%
25%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes as long as "cuts" are interpreted as slower than projected growth. Provided that economic growth continues, no need for level cuts
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raising efficiency of US healthcare to level of other developed countries would dramatically reduce need for tax increases and benefit cuts
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are ways of making the health care programs much more efficient, which would obviate the need for tax increases for some time.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Does the question include a potential VAT? Other taxes?
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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You tell me the growth rate of GDP and evolutiom of relative health care costs, and I'll tell you...
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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doesn't have to. we are cursed with the blessing of choice on this issue: nothing happens b/c everyone says 'let's let the other guy pay'
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It all depends on how much revenue can be raised by increasing taxes on those earning more than 250K. I don't know the answer to this.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The math becomes more inevitable (and uglier) after 2020.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems likely especially if health care costs grow.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Impossible to answer without knowing more. What are the alternative revenue sources?
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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