US

Taxes and Mandatory Spending

Long run fiscal sustainability in the US will require some combination of cuts in currently promised Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Yes as long as "cuts" are interpreted as slower than projected growth. Provided that economic growth continues, no need for level cuts
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Raising efficiency of US healthcare to level of other developed countries would dramatically reduce need for tax increases and benefit cuts
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
There are ways of making the health care programs much more efficient, which would obviate the need for tax increases for some time.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Does the question include a potential VAT? Other taxes?
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
You tell me the growth rate of GDP and evolutiom of relative health care costs, and I'll tell you...
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
doesn't have to. we are cursed with the blessing of choice on this issue: nothing happens b/c everyone says 'let's let the other guy pay'
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It all depends on how much revenue can be raised by increasing taxes on those earning more than 250K. I don't know the answer to this.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The math becomes more inevitable (and uglier) after 2020.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Seems likely especially if health care costs grow.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Impossible to answer without knowing more. What are the alternative revenue sources?
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History