US

Tax Reforms

Question A:

Since 1980, whenever substantial growth effects have been required to make a tax reform plan revenue neutral, the actual outcome has invariably been a fall in tax revenue as a share of GDP.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

The tax reform plan proposed by President Trump this week would likely pay for itself through higher economic growth.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
I generally agree, but the demand stimulus from a tax cut in a recession may reduce net revenue loss.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Not a shred of evidence that U.S. tax cuts pay for themselves.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
You can quibble with phrasing but that's the consensus of the research literature (that none of the advocates ever seem to check).
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
iIf tax rates are very high reducing them can raise revenue as people work harder. But this has not been so recently:revenue has fallen.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
This is a matter of fact - and I don't know the answer. My guess is big overoptimism.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The purpose of the Reagan tax cut was to reduce taxes relative to what they would have been. He succeeded.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Maybe when marginal rates are 90%+ you can cut them and have them self fund, but not true in the more recent era
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutting taxes can stimulate growth, but typically not by enough to increase total revenue collected.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Have a prior but don't know the evidence.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Question has one word too many: "invariably". Replace that with nearly always and I am all in.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
I'm not sure it should be called a 'plan' b/c it's so devoid of content. But absent offsetting tax increases, it would be a fiscal disaster
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Although what was presented is not in any way a fully-formed "plan".
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
No, but it would put us in the running for a national Darwin award
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
it wasn't a fleshed out plan, but based on what was announced the probability that it will increase the deficit is very high.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
We do not have the details of the plan but it is very implausible that it would pay for itself.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Panelist meant to Strongly Disagree (question misread). There’s no detailed plan. We’ll never see the counterfactual. This is my best guess.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Panelist meant to Strongly Disagree (question misread). Removing state tax deduction will raise education tax burdens. That will hurt growth
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
That said, I would be surprised if the plan passed as currently configured.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
see Larry Summers on this
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Since economy is close to full employment, and impact on potential output modest, only a prayer.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Of course there is no actual plan but the vague outline is a great deficit stimulus.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History