Question A:
Since 1980, whenever substantial growth effects have been required to make a tax reform plan revenue neutral, the actual outcome has invariably been a fall in tax revenue as a share of GDP.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
12%
7%
0%
0%
10%
43%
29%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
3%
53%
44%
Question B:
The tax reform plan proposed by President Trump this week would likely pay for itself through higher economic growth.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
12%
0%
67%
17%
0%
0%
5%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
82%
12%
0%
0%
6%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I generally agree, but the demand stimulus from a tax cut in a recession may reduce net revenue loss.
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not a shred of evidence that U.S. tax cuts pay for themselves.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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You can quibble with phrasing but that's the consensus of the research literature (that none of the advocates ever seem to check).
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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iIf tax rates are very high reducing them can raise revenue as people work harder. But this has not been so recently:revenue has fallen.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a matter of fact - and I don't know the answer. My guess is big overoptimism.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The purpose of the Reagan tax cut was to reduce taxes relative to what they would have been. He succeeded.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maybe when marginal rates are 90%+ you can cut them and have them self fund, but not true in the more recent era
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cutting taxes can stimulate growth, but typically not by enough to increase total revenue collected.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Have a prior but don't know the evidence.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question has one word too many: "invariably". Replace that with nearly always and I am all in.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm not sure it should be called a 'plan' b/c it's so devoid of content. But absent offsetting tax increases, it would be a fiscal disaster
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Although what was presented is not in any way a fully-formed "plan".
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No, but it would put us in the running for a national Darwin award
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it wasn't a fleshed out plan, but based on what was announced the probability that it will increase the deficit is very high.
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We do not have the details of the plan but it is very implausible that it would pay for itself.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Panelist meant to Strongly Disagree (question misread). There’s no detailed plan. We’ll never see the counterfactual. This is my best guess.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Panelist meant to Strongly Disagree (question misread). Removing state tax deduction will raise education tax burdens. That will hurt growth
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That said, I would be surprised if the plan passed as currently configured.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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see Larry Summers on this
-see background information here |
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Since economy is close to full employment, and impact on potential output modest, only a prayer.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Of course there is no actual plan but the vague outline is a great deficit stimulus.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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