US

Tax Reform

Question A:

If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — the US debt-to-GDP ratio will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
The simplification of the tax code could be beneficial, but it is more than offset by its highly regressive nature.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Tax policy appears to have little effect at the margin on GDP growth in OECD countries.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
It is more likely that GDP will be somewhat higher
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
A reduced corporate tax reduction is likely to grow GDP. Whether the overall tax plan is distributionally fair is another matter.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Of course not. Does anyone care about actual evidence anymore?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Though there is merit in cutting the corp tax and other capital taxes, with no other changes in policy, the fed gov will collapse.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The incentive effects are unclear to me. Some of the simplifications make sense but many of the changes look like hand-outs to the rich.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
doubt it will substantially change things either way
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Expensing of investment would provide a bigger boost to the capital stock and GDP 10 years from now, per dollar of revenue lost.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Keynesian effect will have disappeared. Higher debt will probably outweigh lower corporate tax rates. Unlikely that nothing else will change
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Other factors swamp the importance of details of the tax code in determining GDP.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Aside from the redistribution of wealth, hard to see this changing much.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
How could it be otherwise?
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Since growth is likely to be little affected, debt to GDP will rise substantially, absent offsetting policies -- which are rarely enacted
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
By design, the plan increases debt by $1.5 trillion, net of increased-revenue effects. That seems to imply that debt to GDP will rise.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Cut taxes. Lose money. Repeat.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Spending is on a relentless increase relative to revenue. Within 10 years, the fed gov will lose access to credit.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
It seems unlikely that the optimistic growth figures are correct and so the budget deficit will rise unless government cuts are made.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
especially worry about the lost revenue from the pass-through loopholes
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
This is at least is clear. No way the growth effects will be strong enough to offset the revenue losses.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The prospect of 5% GDP growth is absurdly unrealistic, and in its absence everyone agrees the proposed tax reform will contribute to debt.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Provided one agrees that an increase in debt of 5 to 10 percentage points of GDP is substantial.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History