Question A:
Restoring the top individual federal income tax rate to 39.6% for incomes over $400,000 (from the current 37%) and taxing the capital gains and dividends of taxpayers with income over $1 million at that top rate (instead of the current preferential rate of 20%), with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be unlikely to hurt economic growth noticeably.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
2%
0%
7%
16%
49%
19%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
9%
13%
53%
25%
Question B:
Restoring the top tax rate, removing the preferential rate on capital gains and dividends, and raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be likely to lead to a meaningful sustained reduction in fiscal deficits.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
2%
0%
7%
14%
53%
16%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
4%
12%
58%
26%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Removing the overly favorable tax treatment of capital would have other benefits, such as reducing incentives for excessive automation.
-see background information here |
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
We've seen this movie before during the Clinton and Obama administrations. It has a happy ending.
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
I support the policy on distributional grounds, but I'm uncertain of whether it affects total output growth noticeably.
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Agree w/ low confidence. Would agree with higher confidence were revenues spent on infrastructure & early childhood education.
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not sure what "noticeably" means. It's a least a slight negative.
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
How many time do we have to go over this? Seriously.
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Tremendously complicated issue.
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
These tax increases may affect growth in long run but not immediately.
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Tax cut of 2017 appears to have helped economy. Tax increase in a big recession would hurt it.
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Increased taxes on dividends and CG would increase capital misallocation by firms. Also increase misallocation to owner occupied housing.
-see background information here |
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
And using the proceeds to fund pro-growth policies like infrastructure, education, and clean energy R&D
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
I agree in the short run. It's less clear in the medium run, but then perhaps that is also less "noticeable"
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![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
These specific cuts ballooned the federal budget deficit; reversing them would have the opposite effect. (This is not ideal policy either)
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||||
![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Despite such a measure the public debt level will still be very high for the foreseeable future.
|
||||
![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Before considering growth effects, it's obvious. It also seems likely after considering growth effects.
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||||
![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
My caveat to the earlier question applies here as well. I'm also uncomfortable with the underspecified qualifier "sustained."
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Increasing the corporate tax rate would just lead to more tax avoidance
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
And once more for the folks who just won't learn: HOW MANY TIMES DO WE NEED TO REDISCOVER THAT TAXES RAISE REVENUE AND TAX CUTS DON'T?
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Even more complicated
|
||||
![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Of course Biden is proposing lots of additional spending, so I don't expect the budget outlook to improve. If rates rise, trouble...
|
||||
![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Repeated attempts have provided strong evidence that reducing tax rates does not increase tax revenue.
|
||||
![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Suffices to repeal Trump's reform, another failed Republican attempt to show that lowering taxes decreases deficits.
|
||||
![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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