Question A:
Restoring the top individual federal income tax rate to 39.6% for incomes over $400,000 (from the current 37%) and taxing the capital gains and dividends of taxpayers with income over $1 million at that top rate (instead of the current preferential rate of 20%), with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be unlikely to hurt economic growth noticeably.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
2%
0%
7%
16%
49%
19%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
9%
13%
53%
25%
Question B:
Restoring the top tax rate, removing the preferential rate on capital gains and dividends, and raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be likely to lead to a meaningful sustained reduction in fiscal deficits.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
2%
0%
7%
14%
53%
16%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
4%
12%
58%
26%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Removing the overly favorable tax treatment of capital would have other benefits, such as reducing incentives for excessive automation.
-see background information here |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We've seen this movie before during the Clinton and Obama administrations. It has a happy ending.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I support the policy on distributional grounds, but I'm uncertain of whether it affects total output growth noticeably.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agree w/ low confidence. Would agree with higher confidence were revenues spent on infrastructure & early childhood education.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure what "noticeably" means. It's a least a slight negative.
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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How many time do we have to go over this? Seriously.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tremendously complicated issue.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These tax increases may affect growth in long run but not immediately.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tax cut of 2017 appears to have helped economy. Tax increase in a big recession would hurt it.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increased taxes on dividends and CG would increase capital misallocation by firms. Also increase misallocation to owner occupied housing.
-see background information here |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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And using the proceeds to fund pro-growth policies like infrastructure, education, and clean energy R&D
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree in the short run. It's less clear in the medium run, but then perhaps that is also less "noticeable"
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These specific cuts ballooned the federal budget deficit; reversing them would have the opposite effect. (This is not ideal policy either)
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Despite such a measure the public debt level will still be very high for the foreseeable future.
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Before considering growth effects, it's obvious. It also seems likely after considering growth effects.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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My caveat to the earlier question applies here as well. I'm also uncomfortable with the underspecified qualifier "sustained."
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increasing the corporate tax rate would just lead to more tax avoidance
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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And once more for the folks who just won't learn: HOW MANY TIMES DO WE NEED TO REDISCOVER THAT TAXES RAISE REVENUE AND TAX CUTS DON'T?
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even more complicated
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Of course Biden is proposing lots of additional spending, so I don't expect the budget outlook to improve. If rates rise, trouble...
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Repeated attempts have provided strong evidence that reducing tax rates does not increase tax revenue.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Suffices to repeal Trump's reform, another failed Republican attempt to show that lowering taxes decreases deficits.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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