Question A:
Doubling existing tariffs on imports from China of critical production components in solar energy manufacturing will provide a substantial boost to employment in the domestic 'cleantech' sector over the next five years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This could happen if coupled with strong support for clean technologies and electric cars, but even in that case the effect may fall short of "substantial". The evidence that previous tariffs on China increased employment is very thin.
-see background information here |
||||
 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
So far, we see no evidence that Trump/Biden tariffs have led to manufacturing rebound. Meanwhile, subsidies from IRA appear to be working well, as measured by dramatic increase in US manufacturing investment. Trump will likely eliminate those, however.
|
||||
 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Simple economics suggests more employment in domestic substitutes but less in complements.
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Cleantech faces many hurdles, including zoning problems and hiring qualified people.
|
||||
 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Huge uncertainty on actions and reactions makes it difficult to predict.
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Tariffs will prompt substitution from Chinese to domestic manufacturers of some products, but will also raise domestic prices. The net effect on domestic production and employment is unclear.
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The US has a growing module manufacturing industry that depends on Chinese components such as wafers. Increasing the price of wafers would increase the cost of producing modules and result in fewer new solar facilities.
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It is hard to see how making inputs more expensive will boost production and employment.
|
||||
 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
"Substantial": By standards of this industry which is capital not labor intensive. Module production has shifted in response to tariffs. Cell production might if there aren't ways to get around the tariff. Total solar employment is likely to fall if you include installers.
-see background information here -see background information here |
||||
 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If the tariffs are just on China (who knows what likelihood that is), then there is a lot of scope for substitution besides reshoring, so unclear what the domestic effect will be.
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Employment in some specific import-competing companies will surely rise; employment further down the product chain will fall, and the overall disruptions from the ensuing trade war will reduce employment in "cleantech".
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is also certain, but more likely to be true. Such tariffs will disrupt supply chains, which can have a meaningful short-run impact.
|
||||
|
Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The challeng is the counterfactual. Trump inherited a great economy and is about to cut taxes (unsustainably) and remove regulations on critical sectors like banking and consumer protections. We will party like it's 1999. Harm from tariffs may be inaudible against background din
|
||||
|
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Most likely yes. But the extent of disruptions is uncertain, and there are many other factors affecting global growth
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Magnitude of disruptions unclear so impacts v difficult to gauge
|
||||
|
Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Higher tariffs matched by higher tariffs likely to be costly. Again, uncertainty concerns actions and reactions.
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
what mechanism says this will be good for global growth?
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If there are substantial increases in tariffs, global growth would substantially suffer.
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A force pulling towards higher growth is the boom in AI technologies.
|
||||
|
James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Quite possible but not yet clear whether it is probable.
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I don't know what we are supposed to assume. Yes, if there are major trade wars that will be bad. Will they happen? Who knows.
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
My hope is that the world can somehow avoid competitive tarrif increases and the proliferation of non-tarrif barriers that seem to be around the corner. It's a dark path.
|
||||
