Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles

Question A:

The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

Unless the EU matches the proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs, there would be measurably lower employment in Europe's automotive industry over the next five years.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Difficult to say. It's not clear how much US consumers want to increase their purchases of EVs, particularly US ones. Without the tariffs, Chinese EVs could be quite cheap, even with them they may be desirable to some consumers.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Perhaps yes on impact, especially because tariffs will apply to batteries as well, so there will be incentive to relocate the whole chain. But I worry about substitution effects (EVs are already expensive w/o these tariffs) and about retaliation by other countries.
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
and us consumers paying substantially more.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Botticini
Maristella Botticini
Bocconi
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
But would likely reduce employment in other sectors.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Gorodnichenko
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Low adoption of EVs in US reduces impact of imports from China.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The 2018 round of Trump tariffs failed to increase employment opportunities for US workers, as documented in the article below forthcoming in the Journal of the International Economics
-see background information here
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Tariffs on EVs will lead to retaliation (not affecting US car industry that much, because it is weak on exports) and relocation (on-shoring Chinese care producers). As a result, for existing car industry in US, EV tariffs will likely not increase employment.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The existing level of tariffs is already quite prohibitive (actual imports of EVs from China are negligible).
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Only in the short run, and that may be a quite short time.
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Yes, higher employment in the US automobile industry - combined with higher car prices and lower employment in other industries
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Tenreyro
Silvana Tenreyro
LSE
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Van der Ploeg
Rick Van der Ploeg
Oxford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
But not higher employment in the US economy
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
BYD sells some good EVs at under $10,000. Even if in the US they could be sold for $15,000-$20,000, they are likely to be attractive. So the tariffs will probably be damaging to the move towards green technology.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Again, I worry about substitution effects, which in this case means slower transition to EVs.
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
higher prices for EVs, less adoptions.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Botticini
Maristella Botticini
Bocconi
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Gorodnichenko
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
View on US only. Several effects to be expected: EV tariffs bring Chinese companies to the US (raising transition speed), shifting supply to more expensive US firms (lowering green transition), plus: tariff signals roll-back on green transition.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Since price elasticity of EVs does not seem to differ substantially from the (high) levels for internal combustion engines, the CURRENT level of tariffs slows down transition to EVs.
-see background information here
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Tenreyro
Silvana Tenreyro
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Van der Ploeg
Rick Van der Ploeg
Oxford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
If the EU matches US tariffs on Chinese vehicles, it is quite likely there will be retaliation by the Chinese on European manufacturers, particularly German ones. So employment may be lower with the tariffs.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
I think the tariffs on batteries are arguably the most important aspect, because they are relatively easier to trade than assembled vehicles, and because they constitute a huge percentage of the value added of EVs.
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
no need to match. Higher tariffs but not 100%, and no restriction on Chinese FDI in Europe.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Botticini
Maristella Botticini
Bocconi
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Retaliation by the Chinese government would be an important factor in this.
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Gorodnichenko
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Tariff on Chinese EVs would have bigger impact in EU than in US. (Though relevance of the US measures to this question doubtful. Employment in EU auto manufactuing likely to decline with or without imports from China.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
US EV-tariffs lead top increased demand for combustibles, and more exports from EU. Moreover, without higher EU-tariffs on EVs, EU car industry will adjust fast to EV transition, becoming more competitive, and eventually increasing employment, ceteris paribus.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Higher employment in the automobile industry and lower employment elsewhere. And more expensive cars
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Tenreyro
Silvana Tenreyro
LSE
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Van der Ploeg
Rick Van der Ploeg
Oxford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
The reference to matching gives me pause. Anyway policy should be concerned with employment in the European economy as a whole, not one sector of it.
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History