Question A:
The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Although at a _very_ high cost per job, these tariffs will probably slow the erosion of US auto manufacturing employment (including among entrepot manufacturers). The US auto industry is not prepared to compete with BYD. That's not BYD's fault, but it is the reality.
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The EVs produced in China are substitutes for the EVs produced in the US. By increasing the price of the imports, the domestic products become more competitive.
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The tariffs would raise US EV prices, thus increase EV gross margins in the US, which are currently negative for all but Tesla. Higher margins would in turn increase optimal output, thus raise demand for labor input.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It might, if the US EV industry takes off. This seems unlikely given the recent performance of EV sales in the US.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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compared to the counterfactual of no tariffs (not current employment)
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If employment increases it will be so small that it will not be picked up in aggregate data.
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Other forces pushing US auto industry employment downward will still operate, and the relative effect of Chinese EVs may be small.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the short run, effect would be minimal because imports of Chinese EV are very small. On the middle run it would depend on whether Chinese EV producers establish facilities in countries with free trade agreements with US.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More likely in gas-powered vehicles.
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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US employment effect depends on many factors and margins of substitution; e.g., do Chinese manufacturers move production and to where, can U.S. producers ramp up EV and how does this cannibalize their ICE sales
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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How could it not?
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The market for EVs is very competitive already, thus a restriction for a subset of supplier will not affect the overall market price
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Currently, there are no Chinese EV imports in the US, so the tariffs are preemptive. They will raise EV prices relative to the counterfactual without tariffs, where affordable Chinese EVs would be imported in the US market.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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compared to the counterfactual of no tariffs
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The shifting patterns of production across countries will likely limit the decline in the actual supply of EV to US customers. China is already talking about moving some production to mexico to get around the tariff.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Without Chinese competition, the higher-cost American firms can charge higher prices.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We can expect the cost of the tariffs to be borne by US consumers.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Currently, there are very few Chines EV imports. Effect on prices in the next few years would depend whether Chinese EV manufacturers establish facilities in countries with free-trade agreements with the US.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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What else could it do?
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Have you seen those Chinese EV prices?
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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EV sales have been low in the US. Keeping affordable options out of the market through protection will only slow down their adoption. In the best case, US firms will catch up with a delay.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If prices increase meaningfully, this could slow adoption. However, I am not sure that prices will increase in a meaningful way if production from China gets reallocated to other countries.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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depends in part by how many steps the government mandates.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raising the prices of green technologies is not an effective way to encourage their use.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Adoption by consumers will very much depend on establishing good infrastructure for recharging. The effect of the tariff on adoption would depend on whether Chinese EV manufacturers establish facilities in countries with free-trade agreements with US (Mexico, South Korea...)
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I take “green technologies” to mean EVs. No reason to expect impacts on other technologies.
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Other policies may respond such as state and federal subsidies, development of a green ecosystem in the US that creates externalities in other industries, etc.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is hard to guess what the counterfactual is. Do the Chinese export a lot of EVs at a 25% tariff? Dunno.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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