Question A:
Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would improve social welfare more than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
5%
0%
19%
49%
19%
2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
24%
57%
18%
1%
Question B:
A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt, and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
7%
0%
9%
33%
42%
2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
8%
32%
58%
2%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These policies are unlikely to be as effective.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Are we supposed to know and have evaluated empirical studies on these things?
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increasing the cost of obtaining calories, indiscriminately, could backfire by exacerbating inequalities or reducing healthy calorie intake.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A very considerable amount of physical activity is needed to burn a few calories.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Losing weight requires reduction in calorie intake. Physical activity helps, but does not solve the problem of obesity.
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Science has not made much progress in understanding obesity
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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DWL probably lower w phys activ but unclear if those incentive actually work.One cannot answer this q without solid evidence on efficacy.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Weight is determined primarily by caloric intake. Obesity policy should focus on calories. Exercise helps improve general health.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is so much we still do not know about the interaction of activity, diet and obesity, let alone what to try to incentivize.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Taxing junk food could conceivably be more effective against obesity than subsidizing exercise. But its incidence would fall on the poor.
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both policies are valuable, but it is difficult to identify one as most effective in improving social welfare.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The devil would be in the details of either approach.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Policies that increase the cost of calories are easier to implement and less prone to loopholes and manipulation
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Details matter.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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