US

Student Loans

Question A:

Loans to students attending for-profit colleges are especially risky because students attending them have had default rates that greatly exceed those for comparable students attending public and non-profit private institutions.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Rules that tie each college's eligibility for federal student loans to its students' graduation rates and post-schooling employment outcomes would better protect taxpayers from losses on student loans.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
See Deming, Goldin and Katz 2012 in Journal of Economic Perspectives
-see background information here
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Seems misphrased. Surely not "because"? Rather than both consequences of other factors
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Perhaps these students were high default risks no matter what schools they attended. Cannot infer causation from correlation.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Agreeing with some caution: default rates are higher on average (see link), but don't know the evidence on whether students are comparable.
-see background information here
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Depends on whether the characteristics leading a student to default are observable and independent of attendance at a for-profit school.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Haven't seen numbers except in the press; don't understand the nature of "default" here.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Presumes facts that I do not know to be true.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
I don't know of work that has been able to compare default for "comparable students"; the pools attending are very different.
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
If the fact is correct ( I do not know ) I agree

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
A tie to default rates would also help.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
The government is now residual claimant for the school's activities. There may be alternative ways to do this.
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Sounds reasonable that loans should not be provided if they are not having a sufficiently good measured impact.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Note though that high graduation rates may be manipulable.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Outcomes need to be measured. But graduation rates can be manipulated. Employment outcomes are a better criterion.
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The policies should not be at the college/univ level but should be at the PROGRAM level. Better than nothing, though.
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
if done right.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Conclusion is obvious, but does not support the policy. The proper goal is to improve students' lives on average, not avoid loan losses.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Depends on not forbearing, or picking up costs of past bad private loans. Will the government really put lots of people in debtors prison?
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Sounds plausible, but don't know have enough expertise on current program to feel very confident about it.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
May just drive students who were likely to default anyway to different colleges
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Much could depend on the nature of the "tie." If this were done well it could also affect competition for students in a positive way.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hard to know without more details. The no brainer is to require better disclosure. You should have asked about that.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Better incentives for colleges seem appropriate here.
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History